Forecasting

Forecasting provides insight into a vision of the future by using models that visualize how quickly and where ocean chemistry will be changing in tandem with an understanding of how sensitive marine resources and communities are to these changes.  By making predictions about the future, we can better adapt and prepare for ocean acidification.

Modeling Projects

Modeling provides a glimpse into the future by combining predicted changes to ocean chemistry with impacts to both marine organisms and people.  These models allow communities and fishery managers to plan ahead and adapt to ocean acidification. Models are underway or have been completed for some of the most vulnerable species, such as Atlantic sea scallops, which are vulnerable to acidification impacts in their early life stages and represent the highest grossing single species fishery in the United States. The Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) funded a modeling project led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution to develop an integrated model for forecasting the impacts of ocean acidification (OA) on the Atlantic sea scallop fishery.  The new model connects chemical changes with population changes and economic information that will be used to create interactive tools for decision makers. NOAA scientists have played an important role in development of the J-SCOPE forecast system, used to create seasonal forecasts for the North Pacific region.  These forecasts will allow fisheries managers to predict seasonal outlooks for management decisions.

Vulnerability Assessments 

Learning how sensitive marine organisms are to ocean acidification is an important part of creating management plans. These “vulnerability assessments” lay the groundwork for adaptation strategies by identifying the most ecologically, economically or culturally  important resources. Scientists at NOAA Fisheries, which are supported  by the Ocean Acidification Program (OAP), are developing vulnerability assessments in US regions that include ocean acidification as part of fishery management plans. These ocean acidification vulnerability assessments have been completed in the Northeast for a wide variety of fishes and invertebrates, such as cod and sea scallops, and are near completion in Alaska.  Additionally, a vulnerability assessment was completed for shellfish aquaculture throughout the United States.  

From Observations to Forecasts

Learning ways in which communities can adapt to ocean acidification is an important strategy for protecting human health and marine ecosystems.  Turning current observations into forecasts is the key mechanism by which these adaptation plans are created. Coastal forecasts for ocean acidification are currently being developed for the West Coast, Chesapeake Bay, the East Coast, Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico. Ocean acidification hotspots are areas that are particularly vulnerable, either from a biological, economic, or cultural perspective.  Identification of these hot spots in coastal waters is a priority for the Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs), fostered by the Ocean Acidification Program around the country.  These networks bring together scientists, decision makers, fishermen and other stakeholders to identify and answer the most important questions about acidification and its effects in the region.


 

STORIES OF ADAPTATION

Research shows ocean acidification is spreading rapidly in the Arctic

Research shows ocean acidification is spreading rapidly in the Arctic

NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

Ocean acidification is spreading rapidly in the western Arctic Ocean in both area and depth, potentially affecting shellfish, other marine species in the food web, and communities that depend on these resources, according to new research published in Nature Climate Change by NOAA, Chinese marine scientists and other partners.

Tuesday, March 14, 2017
MIT Sea Grant announces three newly funded projects studying ocean acidification

MIT Sea Grant announces three newly funded projects studying ocean acidification

MIT Sea Grant

MIT Sea Grant has selected three research projects for funding from our annual request for proposals. The projects focus on developing new ocean acidification sensor technology and using modeling techniques to consolidate historical data to inform future coastal ocean acidification monitoring.

Friday, February 24, 2017
New tool helps oyster growers prepare for changing ocean chemistry

New tool helps oyster growers prepare for changing ocean chemistry

NOAA Research, Laura Newcomb

For Bill Mook, coastal acidification is one thing his oyster hatchery cannot afford to ignore. Mook Sea Farm depends on seawater from the Gulf of Maine pumped into a Quonset hut-style building where tiny oysters are grown in tanks. Mook sells these tiny oysters to other oyster farmers or transfers them to his oyster farm on the Damariscotta River where they grow large enough to sell to restaurants and markets on the East Coast.

Thursday, January 26, 2017
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Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC-Oceans) ceases operation, all activities to transition to NOAA

Data management activities for the ocean component of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC-Oceans) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) have recently stopped and this letter provides information on steps being taken to minimize the impact of this stoppage on the oceanographic community. Data, numerical data packages (NDPs), data synthesis product pages, and utilities (such as CO2SYS) at CDIAC-Oceans will continue to be accessible through ORNL until September 30, 2017 when the entire CDIAC will fully cease operations.


Thursday, December 8, 2016
Categories: OA monitoring
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WESTPAC Scientists Step up Efforts to Combat Ocean Acidification

WESTPAC Scientists Step up Efforts to Combat Ocean Acidification

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission for the Western Pacific (WESTPAC)

46 Scientists from the region gathered again in Phuket, Thailand, 29-31 August 2016, stepping up their efforts to develop a long term program monitoring the ecological impacts of ocean acidification on coral reef ecosystems for the region.

The three-day WESTPAC event is a follow-up to previous two workshops in 2015, with the aim to review and test, through expert discussions and practical demonstrations either in field or laboratory, a set of consistent, comparable and cost-effective “Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs)”, which could be used for monitoring the ecological impacts of ocean acidification on coral reef ecosystems. While these efforts are focused on the establishment of a regional ocean acidification observing network, we are ideally striving for consistency and comparability as part of the Global Ocean Acidification - Observing Network (GOA-ON).

Friday, September 16, 2016
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