Forecasting

Forecasting provides insight into a vision of the future by using models that visualize how quickly and where ocean chemistry will be changing in tandem with an understanding of how sensitive marine resources and communities are to these changes.  By making predictions about the future, we can better adapt and prepare for ocean acidification.

Modeling Projects

Modeling provides a glimpse into the future by combining predicted changes to ocean chemistry with impacts to both marine organisms and people.  These models allow communities and fishery managers to plan ahead and adapt to ocean acidification. Models are underway or have been completed for some of the most vulnerable species, such as Atlantic sea scallops, which are vulnerable to acidification impacts in their early life stages and represent the highest grossing single species fishery in the United States. The Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) funded a modeling project led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution to develop an integrated model for forecasting the impacts of ocean acidification (OA) on the Atlantic sea scallop fishery.  The new model connects chemical changes with population changes and economic information that will be used to create interactive tools for decision makers. NOAA scientists have played an important role in development of the J-SCOPE forecast system, used to create seasonal forecasts for the North Pacific region.  These forecasts will allow fisheries managers to predict seasonal outlooks for management decisions.

Vulnerability Assessments 

Learning how sensitive marine organisms are to ocean acidification is an important part of creating management plans. These “vulnerability assessments” lay the groundwork for adaptation strategies by identifying the most ecologically, economically or culturally  important resources. Scientists at NOAA Fisheries, which are supported  by the Ocean Acidification Program (OAP), are developing vulnerability assessments in US regions that include ocean acidification as part of fishery management plans. These ocean acidification vulnerability assessments have been completed in the Northeast for a wide variety of fishes and invertebrates, such as cod and sea scallops, and are near completion in Alaska.  Additionally, a vulnerability assessment was completed for shellfish aquaculture throughout the United States.  

From Observations to Forecasts

Learning ways in which communities can adapt to ocean acidification is an important strategy for protecting human health and marine ecosystems.  Turning current observations into forecasts is the key mechanism by which these adaptation plans are created. Coastal forecasts for ocean acidification are currently being developed for the West Coast, Chesapeake Bay, the East Coast, Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico. Ocean acidification hotspots are areas that are particularly vulnerable, either from a biological, economic, or cultural perspective.  Identification of these hot spots in coastal waters is a priority for the Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs), fostered by the Ocean Acidification Program around the country.  These networks bring together scientists, decision makers, fishermen and other stakeholders to identify and answer the most important questions about acidification and its effects in the region.


 

STORIES OF ADAPTATION

MIT Sea Grant announces three newly funded projects studying ocean acidification

MIT Sea Grant announces three newly funded projects studying ocean acidification

MIT Sea Grant

MIT Sea Grant has selected three research projects for funding from our annual request for proposals. The projects focus on developing new ocean acidification sensor technology and using modeling techniques to consolidate historical data to inform future coastal ocean acidification monitoring.

Friday, February 24, 2017

Webinar: "Managing coastal acidification: The challenges and opportunities of using water quality criteria"

Northeast Coastal Acidification Network (NECAN)

NECAN is pleased to announce the inaugural webinar, of our second webinar series, presented by Dr. Aaron Strong on Tuesday, November 1 at 10:00 am ET.

As awareness of both the potential socioeconomic impacts of coastal acidification and its multiple drivers has increased, there has been increasing attention to the policy tools that are available to state environmental managers to address ocean and coastal acidification. One of those tools is the use of the Clean Water Act's provisions for setting water quality impairment criteria. This question has recently been brought to the forefront of coastal acidification management discussions as a result of a series of suits against the EPA urging the development of such criteria for coastal acidification. Conversations among scientists, agency representatives and managers on both coasts about how to do this are on going. Can water quality criteria focused on acidification be developed with our current knowledge, and, if so, what would they look like? This webinar explores these questions and discusses their potential application in the Northeast.

To register for this webinar, click here

Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Natural Aquaculture: Can We  Save Oceans by Farming Them?

Natural Aquaculture: Can We Save Oceans by Farming Them?

Yale Environment 360

A small but growing number of entrepreneurs are creating sea-farming operations that cultivate shellfish together with kelp and seaweed, a combination they contend can restore ecosystems and mitigate the impacts of ocean acidification.

Tuesday, October 11, 2016
BENEATH THE WAVES, CLIMATE CHANGE PUTS MARINE LIFE ON THE MOVE

BENEATH THE WAVES, CLIMATE CHANGE PUTS MARINE LIFE ON THE MOVE

The Connecticut Mirror

The Connecticut Mirror details the changes in marine species distributions in New England and what this could mean for the future of fisheries in the region.

Monday, September 5, 2016
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Surfing for science: Researchers are using Smartfin to study ocean

Today Show

Neurologist Andy Stern says some marine biologists are predicting a possibly grim future for the ocean, but he and his team of engineers developed an inexpensive and portable product to study the waters. It’s an intelligent surfboard, called Smartfin, which analyzes different details of the waves, to hopefully one day provide insight into what climate change is doing now and what it will do next.

Friday, September 2, 2016
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