Forecasting

Forecasting provides insight into a vision of the future by using models that visualize how quickly and where ocean chemistry will be changing in tandem with an understanding of how sensitive marine resources and communities are to these changes.  By making predictions about the future, we can better adapt and prepare for ocean acidification.

Modeling Projects

Modeling provides a glimpse into the future by combining predicted changes to ocean chemistry with impacts to both marine organisms and people.  These models allow communities and fishery managers to plan ahead and adapt to ocean acidification. Models are underway or have been completed for some of the most vulnerable species, such as Atlantic sea scallops, which are vulnerable to acidification impacts in their early life stages and represent the highest grossing single species fishery in the United States. The Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) funded a modeling project led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution to develop an integrated model for forecasting the impacts of ocean acidification (OA) on the Atlantic sea scallop fishery.  The new model connects chemical changes with population changes and economic information that will be used to create interactive tools for decision makers. NOAA scientists have played an important role in development of the J-SCOPE forecast system, used to create seasonal forecasts for the North Pacific region.  These forecasts will allow fisheries managers to predict seasonal outlooks for management decisions.

Vulnerability Assessments 

Learning how sensitive marine organisms are to ocean acidification is an important part of creating management plans. These “vulnerability assessments” lay the groundwork for adaptation strategies by identifying the most ecologically, economically or culturally  important resources. Scientists at NOAA Fisheries, which are supported  by the Ocean Acidification Program (OAP), are developing vulnerability assessments in US regions that include ocean acidification as part of fishery management plans. These ocean acidification vulnerability assessments have been completed in the Northeast for a wide variety of fishes and invertebrates, such as cod and sea scallops, and are near completion in Alaska.  Additionally, a vulnerability assessment was completed for shellfish aquaculture throughout the United States.  

From Observations to Forecasts

Learning ways in which communities can adapt to ocean acidification is an important strategy for protecting human health and marine ecosystems.  Turning current observations into forecasts is the key mechanism by which these adaptation plans are created. Coastal forecasts for ocean acidification are currently being developed for the West Coast, Chesapeake Bay, the East Coast, Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico. Ocean acidification hotspots are areas that are particularly vulnerable, either from a biological, economic, or cultural perspective.  Identification of these hot spots in coastal waters is a priority for the Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs), fostered by the Ocean Acidification Program around the country.  These networks bring together scientists, decision makers, fishermen and other stakeholders to identify and answer the most important questions about acidification and its effects in the region.


 

STORIES OF ADAPTATION

Pacific Oysters Gain from Ocean Acidification Data

Pacific Oysters Gain from Ocean Acidification Data

NOAA

About six years ago, production at some Pacific Northwest oyster hatcheries began declining at an alarming rate, posing severe economic impact and challenging a way of life held by shellfish growers for more than 130 years.

By 2008, the oyster harvest at Whiskey Creek, a major Oregon supplier to the majority of West Coast oyster farmers, plummeted 80 percent. At about the same time, corrosive, acidified seawater was hitting the shores of the Pacific. 

Wednesday, December 2, 2015
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Ocean Acidification: Local action in the Northwest Straits

Northwest Straits Commission

The Northwest Straits Initiative is working to mitigate ocean acidification and its impacts on local businesses and economies. Volunteers with seven county-based Marine Resources Committees (MRC) and the Northwest Straits Commission are demonstrating ways to engage in local solutions, and sharing information that is provided by leading science and policy experts.
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
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California Ocean Protection Council Announces West Coast Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia Science Panel

Sacramento, Calif. – California and Oregon are joining forces to help address ocean acidification and hypoxia, a West Coast-wide threat to our shared marine and coastal ecosystems. The California Natural Resources Agency, on behalf of the California Ocean Protection Council (OPC), today signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the state of Oregon to jointly sponsor a high-level science panel to help address the issue of ocean acidification and hypoxia.
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
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Turning the High Beams on Ocean Acidification: NOAA Funds Shellfish Farmers and Scientist To Expand Pacific Coast Monitoring With $1.4 Million Over Three Years

Turning the High Beams on Ocean Acidification: NOAA Funds Shellfish Farmers and Scientist To Expand Pacific Coast Monitoring With $1.4 Million Over Three Years

NOAA Ocean Acidification Program

NOAA is providing a grant of $1.4 million over three years to help shellfish growers and scientific experts work together to expand ocean acidification (OA) monitoring in waters that are particularly important to Pacific coast communities such as in oyster hatcheries and coastal waters where young oysters are grown. 

Shellfish growers, hatchery owners and scientists will work together to strengthen their understanding of and ability to adapt to the impacts of ocean acidification on the Pacific Coast of the US, including Alaska. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, which are being absorbed by the ocean, are causing a change in ocean chemistry which has already been detected along this coast. 

Monday, December 15, 2014
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Ocean Acidification Concerns, Information to be aired at Northeast Stakeholders Workshop

Ocean Acidification Concerns, Information to be aired at Northeast Stakeholders Workshop

The Northeast Coastal Acidification Network (NECAN) is hosting an “Ocean and Coastal Acidification Stakeholder Workshop” on December 10, 2014 at the Darling Marine Center in Walpole, Maine. The purpose is to inform and learn from fishermen, clam harvesters, aquaculturists, and coastal water quality volunteer programs their concerns and state of knowledge about ocean and coastal acidification (OCA). 

Thursday, December 4, 2014
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