DEVELOPING FORECASTS
HOW CAN WE ADAPT?

 

Societal impacts and adaptation strategies

Ocean acidification is a threat to food security, economies, and culture because of its potential impacts on marine ecosystem services. Information on how ocean acidification will impact ecosystems and the services they provide can help guide how we adapt to and mitigate forecasted changes.


ECONOMIC MODELING

The OAP funds modeling studies to advance our understanding of the impacts of ocean acidification on coastal ecosystems and fisheries.

Scientists can use a wide variety of models to project the potential progression of acidification in different regions, the impacts that changes in chemistry may have on marine life, and how these changes could affect a variety of ecosystem services including fisheries, aquaculture, and protection of coasts by coral reefs. For example, projections of ocean acidification can be incorporated into food-web models to better understand how changing ocean chemistry could affect harvested species, protected species, and the structure of the food web itself. Economic-forecast models can be used to analyze the economic impacts of potential changes in fisheries harvest caused by ocean acidification.


Figure from: Harvey et al. 2010

Ecosystem Modeling

Experiments on species response suggest that ocean acidification will directly affect a wide variety of organisms from calcifying shellfish and coral to fish and phytoplankton. Ecosystem models can capture the complex effects of ocean acidification on entire ecosystems.

How marine organisms respond to ocean acidification will be influenced by their reaction to chemistry change and their interactions with others species, such as their predators and prey. Scientists use ecosystem models to understand how ocean chemistry may affect entire ecosystems because they account for the complex interactions between organisms. Output from such modeling exercises can inform management of fisheries, protected species, and other important natural resources. Because ecosystem feedbacks are complex, understanding the uncertainty associated with these models is critical to effective management.


Economic Projections

Projections of the economic impacts of ocean acidification can be created by combining economic models with findings from laboratory experiments and ecological models.

For example, these links can be made for port communities or specific fisheries through modeling changes in fish harvest. Researchers at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center have developed bio-economic forecasts for the economically and culturally important species red king crab. Researchers at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center are developing projections of how the economies of regional port communities might be altered by potential changes in West Coast fisheries caused by ocean acidification.

 

How can we adapt to our changing ocean? 

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) is working to build knowledge about how to adapt to the consequences of ocean acidification (OA) and conserve marine ecosystems as acidification occurs.

 

 

FORECASTING

TECHNOLOGY

MANAGEMENT


FROM OBSERVATIONS TO FORECASTS

Turning current observations into forecasts is the key mechanism by which adaptation plans are created.

Forecasting provides insight into a vision of the future by using models that visualize how quickly and where ocean chemistry will be changing in tandem with an understanding of how sensitive marine resources and communities are to these changes.  By making predictions about the future, we can better adapt and prepare for ocean acidification. Coastal forecasts for ocean acidification are currently being developed for the West Coast, Chesapeake Bay, the East Coast, Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico. Ocean acidification hotspots are areas that are particularly vulnerable, either from a biological, economic, or cultural perspective. Identification of these hot spots in coastal waters is a priority for the Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs), fostered by the Ocean Acidification Program around the country. These networks bring together scientists, decision makers, fishermen and other stakeholders to identify and answer the most important questions about acidification and its effects in the region.

 

NOAA scientists have played an important role in development of the J-SCOPE forecast system, used to create seasonal forecasts for the North Pacific region. These forecasts will allow fisheries managers to predict seasonal outlooks for management decisions.


TECHNOLOGY

Developing innovative tools to help monitor ocean acidification and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally


MANAGEMENT TOOLS

Management strategies use information provided by research and tools that can be used to make sound decisions to effectively conserve marine resources. Baseline research about organism and community sensitivity to ocean acidification is incorporated into these strategies, in an effort to sustain these resources for the future.

Before management plans can be created it is necessary to have baseline research about the effects of ocean acidification on marine resources, such as Pacific oysters, Dungeness crabs and rockfish. The OAP funds NOAA Fisheries Science Centers to expose various life stages of valuable species to present and future acidification conditions. The biological response research is then incorporated into models that can be used to create tools for managers to use so that they can test different scenarios on species’ populations and habitats.  Modeling efforts led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution are now being used to produce one of these tools for Atlantic sea scallop fisheries. The dashboard will allow managers to test the impacts of different management actions on scallop populations.  In the Pacific Northwest, NOAA, the University of Washington, and shellfish industry scientists have formed a strong partnership to adapt to ocean acidification impacts that have already affected the shellfish industry. Together these researchers determined that acidification was threatening oyster production and offered an approach to address it. They installed equipment to monitor carbon chemistry at shellfish hatcheries and worked with hatchery managers to develop methods that protect developing oyster larvae from exposure to low pH waters.   Early warning tools are now being used to forecast seasonal acidification conditions to enable shellfish growers to adapt their practices.

 


EXPLORE THE IOOS Pacific Region Ocean Acidification
Data portal

This portal provides a real-time data stream of ocean acidification data that can be used by shellfish growers, regional managers, stakeholders and the public. The portal can be used to make resource decisions and build adaptation strategies.


OAP SUPPORTED Societal impact PROJECTS

Turning the headlights on 'high': Improving an ocean acidification observation system in support of Pacific coast shellfish growers

Jan Newton, University of Washington

Working across four IOOS Regional Associations in partnership with the shellfish industry and other groups affected by ocean acidification (OA), our proposal is divided into four tasks that continue the foundational aspects established to date and expand both technical capacity and the development of new technology with respect to OA observing needs for shellfish growers and other related impacted and potentially vulnerable U.S. industries, governments (tribal, state, local) and other stakeholders. Our proposed work includes development of observing technology, expert oversight intelligence, data dissemination, and outreach and will be executed by a team that includes a sensor technology industry and academic and government scientists. We will: 1) Develop new lower cost and higher accuracy sensor technology for OA monitoring and expand them to new sites; 2) Utilize regional partnerships of users and local experts to implement and provide Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) tests of the new OA sensors; 3) Establish data handling and dissemination mechanisms that provide both user-friendly and standards-based web service access that are exportable from the Pacific Coast module to the entirety of U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS); and 4) Provide education and outreach services to stakeholders concerned about and potentially impacted by OA.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017
Categories: Projects

Integrated Modeling of Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia to Support Ecosystem Prediction and Environmental Management in the California Current System

James McWilliams, UCLA/IGPP

The California Current System (CCS) is one of the most biologically productive regions of the world ocean, but seasonal upwelling of low oxygen and low-pH waters makes it particularly vulnerable to even small additional reductions in O2 and/or pH, which have both been observed in recent decades. Three prominent coastal phenomena have been implicated in precisely these changes: 1) large scale acidification and deoxygenation of the ocean associated with climate warming, 2) natural climate variability, and 3) anthropogenic pollution of coastal waters, especially from nutrient discharge and deposition.  The relative importance of these drivers has not been systematically evaluated, and yet is critical information in any cost-effective strategy to manage coastal resources at local scales.  Disentangling the magnitude and interaction of these different ecosystem stresses requites an integrated systems modeling approach that is carefully validated against available datasets.

The goals of this project are three-fold: 1) develop an ocean hypoxia and acidifcation (OHA) model of the CCS (Baja California to British Columbia), comprising the circulation, biogeochemical cycles, and lower-trophic ecosystem of the CCS, with regional downscaling in the Southern California Bight, Central Coast, and the Oregon Coast; 2) use the model to understand the relative contributions of natural climate variability, anthropogenically induced climate change, and anthropogenic inputs on the status and trends of OHA in the CCS; and 3) transmit these findings to coastal zone mangers and help them explore the implications for marine resource management and pollution control.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017
Categories: Projects

Multi-Scale Prediction of California Current Carbonate System Dynamics

Burke Hales, Oregon State University

The California Current is a dynamic eastern boundary system that spans the Northeast Pacific from Canada to Baja California, Mexico. Upwelling of cold, nutrient rich water drives multi trophic level productivity throughout much of the domain, but also results in naturally acidic on-shelf waters on regional scales. In addition, anthropogenic CO2 on basin to global scales, and local inputs by eutrophication, fresh water inputs, and local respiration or carbon assimilation result in multiscale and context-specific perturbations to the carbonate system. Thus, to understand, manage, or mitigate the effect of ocean acidification on ocean ecosystems, we need to quantify a suite of carbonate system parameters along the Pacific Coast in a mechanistic, spatially explicit, and temporally dynamic fashion.

We propose to embed an improved semi-analytical carbonate-chemistry prediction model within a dynamic classification of pelagic seascapes derived from satellite remotely sensed variables, including, but not limited to, phytoplankton standing stock (chl-a), SST, and wind stress. We will produce synoptic time series and nowcasts of surface TCO2, TALK, pH and Ω that will facilitate regional comparisons of interannual trends in OA parameters. We will include metrics of model and spatiotemporal uncertainty to better inform management decisions. These maps will be validated with the wealth of multi-parameter OA data generated from recent NOAA-supported field-observational efforts, from coastal moorings, West-coast OA cruises, and shore-based Burke-o-Lators. Statistical analyses will quantify spatially explicit trends across OA parameters, and local deviations from seascape-based predictions will disentangle basin-scale oceanic vs. local drivers of the carbonate system. Maps will be served in near real time on IOOS data portals. Time series and maps will inform marine ecosystem management and provide metrics of ocean health for National Marine Sanctuary condition reports.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Categories: Projects

Evaluation of New Subsurface Carbon Technologies for OA Moorings

Adrienne Sutton and Chris Sabine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

The PMEL Carbon Group has been augmenting and expanding high-frequency observations on moorings to provide valuable information for better understanding natural variability in inorganic carbon chemistry over daily to inter-annual cycles. The current NOAA Ocean Acidification Observing Network (NOA-ON) consists of 21 moorings in coral, coastal, and open ocean environments. At present, the OA mooring network includes a standardized suite of surface sensors measuring for air and seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), pH, temperature (T), salinity (S), dissolved oxygen (DO), fluorescence, and turbidity at all sites. Although OA is primarily driven by uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere, many coastal and estuarine processes that affect water chemistry and the interpretation of coastal OA are manifested in subsurface waters. Furthermore, many of the most sensitive organisms (e.g. corals, shellfish) are benthic and respond to subsurface water chemistry. 

The Moored Autonomous pCO2 (MAPCO2) systems currently used on the 21 OA moorings are uniquely adapted for surface only measurements. PMEL has demonstrated these MAPCO2 systems are compatible with and comparable to ship-based underway pCO2 systems and discrete validation measurements used in the NOA-ON.  However, similar standardized methods and technologies have not been evaluated for subsurface observations on the existing mooring network. Our project evaluates the best carbon system technologies to deploy in the subsurface, demonstrate the utility of these enhanced observations on the moorings, and make recommendations on how advanced technologies can be incorporated into the NOA-ON.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Categories: Projects

Sustained OA Cruise Observations

Richard Feely, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

This project contributes to the NOAA objective to provide accurate and reliable data from sustained and integrated earth observing systems through research, development, deployment, and operation of systems to collect detailed carbonate chemistry measurements as a part of a hydrographic research cruises along the west coast.  The NOAA Ocean Acidification Monitoring Program along North American coastlines (Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf, and Alaskan) and in the global open ocean will focus on mapping and monitoring the distribution of key indicators of ocean acidification including carbon dioxide, pH, and carbonate mineral saturation states. The overarching goal of the program is to determine the trends in ocean acidification (OA) and to provide concrete information that can be used to address acidification issues. The detailed hydrographic research cruises that are planned to be conducted every four years along our coasts are essential for providing high-quality intercalibration data across the full suite of OA observing assets in coastal waters, including well-proven technologies such as the MAPCO2 moored CO2 system and underway pCO2 systems on ships-of-opportunity as well as developing technologies such as wave gliders and sensors for additional carbon parameters. 

The hydrographic cruise measurements facilitate the overall monitoring effort's ability to address the near-term performance measure of quantifying aragonite saturation state in the areas studied to within 0.2.  In addition, the recurring coast-wide cruises allow us a critical opportunity to assess OA conditions along the West Coast in a synoptic fashion.  Cruise-based observations have provided critical information for model validation that is facilitating the improvement of next-generation physical-biogeochemical models projecting OA conditions into the past and the future.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Categories: Projects
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