DEVELOPING FORECASTS
HOW CAN WE ADAPT?

 

Societal impacts and adaptation strategies

Ocean acidification is a threat to food security, economies, and culture because of its potential impacts on marine ecosystem services. Information on how ocean acidification will impact ecosystems and the services they provide can help guide how we adapt to and mitigate forecasted changes.


ECONOMIC MODELING

The OAP funds modeling studies to advance our understanding of the impacts of ocean acidification on coastal ecosystems and fisheries.

Scientists can use a wide variety of models to project the potential progression of acidification in different regions, the impacts that changes in chemistry may have on marine life, and how these changes could affect a variety of ecosystem services including fisheries, aquaculture, and protection of coasts by coral reefs. For example, projections of ocean acidification can be incorporated into food-web models to better understand how changing ocean chemistry could affect harvested species, protected species, and the structure of the food web itself. Economic-forecast models can be used to analyze the economic impacts of potential changes in fisheries harvest caused by ocean acidification.


Figure from: Harvey et al. 2010

Ecosystem Modeling

Experiments on species response suggest that ocean acidification will directly affect a wide variety of organisms from calcifying shellfish and coral to fish and phytoplankton. Ecosystem models can capture the complex effects of ocean acidification on entire ecosystems.

How marine organisms respond to ocean acidification will be influenced by their reaction to chemistry change and their interactions with others species, such as their predators and prey. Scientists use ecosystem models to understand how ocean chemistry may affect entire ecosystems because they account for the complex interactions between organisms. Output from such modeling exercises can inform management of fisheries, protected species, and other important natural resources. Because ecosystem feedbacks are complex, understanding the uncertainty associated with these models is critical to effective management.


Economic Projections

Projections of the economic impacts of ocean acidification can be created by combining economic models with findings from laboratory experiments and ecological models.

For example, these links can be made for port communities or specific fisheries through modeling changes in fish harvest. Researchers at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center have developed bio-economic forecasts for the economically and culturally important species red king crab. Researchers at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center are developing projections of how the economies of regional port communities might be altered by potential changes in West Coast fisheries caused by ocean acidification.

 

How can we adapt to our changing ocean? 

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) is working to build knowledge about how to adapt to the consequences of ocean acidification (OA) and conserve marine ecosystems as acidification occurs.

 

 

FORECASTING

TECHNOLOGY

MANAGEMENT


FROM OBSERVATIONS TO FORECASTS

Turning current observations into forecasts is the key mechanism by which adaptation plans are created.

Forecasting provides insight into a vision of the future by using models that visualize how quickly and where ocean chemistry will be changing in tandem with an understanding of how sensitive marine resources and communities are to these changes.  By making predictions about the future, we can better adapt and prepare for ocean acidification. Coastal forecasts for ocean acidification are currently being developed for the West Coast, Chesapeake Bay, the East Coast, Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico. Ocean acidification hotspots are areas that are particularly vulnerable, either from a biological, economic, or cultural perspective. Identification of these hot spots in coastal waters is a priority for the Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs), fostered by the Ocean Acidification Program around the country. These networks bring together scientists, decision makers, fishermen and other stakeholders to identify and answer the most important questions about acidification and its effects in the region.

 

NOAA scientists have played an important role in development of the J-SCOPE forecast system, used to create seasonal forecasts for the North Pacific region. These forecasts will allow fisheries managers to predict seasonal outlooks for management decisions.


TECHNOLOGY

Developing innovative tools to help monitor ocean acidification and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally


MANAGEMENT TOOLS

Management strategies use information provided by research and tools that can be used to make sound decisions to effectively conserve marine resources. Baseline research about organism and community sensitivity to ocean acidification is incorporated into these strategies, in an effort to sustain these resources for the future.

Before management plans can be created it is necessary to have baseline research about the effects of ocean acidification on marine resources, such as Pacific oysters, Dungeness crabs and rockfish. The OAP funds NOAA Fisheries Science Centers to expose various life stages of valuable species to present and future acidification conditions. The biological response research is them incorporated into models that can be used to create tools for managers to use so that they can test different scenarios on species’ populations and habitats.  Modeling efforts led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution are now being used to produce one of these tools for Atlantic sea scallop fisheries. The dashboard will allow managers to test the impacts of different management actions on scallop populations.  In the Pacific Northwest, NOAA, the University of Washington, and shellfish industry scientists have formed a strong partnership to adapt to ocean acidification impacts that have already affected the shellfish industry. Together these researchers determined that acidification was threatening oyster production and offered an approach to address it. They installed equipment to monitor carbon chemistry at shellfish hatcheries and worked with hatchery managers to develop methods that protect developing oyster larvae from exposure to low pH waters.   Early warning tools are now being used to forecast seasonal acidification conditions to enable shellfish growers to adapt their practices.

 


EXPLORE THE IOOS Pacific Region Ocean Acidification
Data portal

This portal provides a real-time data stream of ocean acidification data that can be used by shellfish growers, regional managers, stakeholders and the public. The portal can be used to make resource decisions and build adaptation strategies.


OAP SUPPORTED Societal impact PROJECTS

Development of Ocean Acidification “pHyter” – Plankton Monitoring Tools & Curriculum

Jacqueline Laverdure

NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuaries of the West Coast Region (Olympic Coast, Greater Farallones, Cordell Bank, Monterey Bay and Channel Islands) will partner with Flathead Valley Community College, NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) and NOAA’s Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NFSC), to increase accessibility and understanding of tools and protocol for ocean acidification monitoring through citizen science and education programs.

Humans and the ocean are inextricably interconnected, with all humans relying on ocean ecosystem outputs such as oxygen, water and food.  Currently, ocean ecosystems are threatened by multiple global change stressors, including ocean acidification (OA).  The development of OA monitoring tools and education curriculum will be instrumental in providing the public with a better understanding of the process of OA and impacts of a more acidic environment to valuable ocean ecosystems.

NOAA’s West Coast Region (WCR) sanctuaries will work with external partner Dr. David Long, of Flathead Valley Community College, to pilot a field-based pH-measuring instrument called ”pHyter” with WCR sanctuaries’ OA education and outreach programs, including citizen science, teacher workshops and student field investigations. Dr. Long  and his students recently developed pHyter: a hand-held chemical indicator-based spectrophotometric pH- measuring device.  OAP funds will support the expansion of pHyter instrument capabilities to permit iPhone and android apps to interface and upload to the international GLOBE Program GIS database, increasing accessibility of pH data.

Friday, April 28, 2017

A Strategy for Ocean and Coastal Acidification (OCA) Education and Citizen Science Monitoring in the Northeast

Beth Turner

This project will cross-calibrate citizen science monitoring protocols for ocean acidification among independent organizations in the Northeast by developing a replicable citizen science monitoring training program. This will be accomplished by providing trainings and materials specific for volunteer and citizen science audiences through a series of regional workshops. The project team will (1) develop the first replicable citizen science monitoring program in accordance with recently developed EPA guidance document, Guidelines for Measuring Changes in Seawater pH and Associated Carbonate Chemistry in Coastal Environments of the Eastern United States, (2) provide in-person technical trainings and educational materials through an initial series of three regional workshops in Maine, Massachusetts and Connecticut and (3) support the successful use of citizen science participation in research and management by building on the Northeast Coastal Acidification Network’s extensive capacity and stakeholder network.

Friday, April 28, 2017
Categories: Projects

Local actions and solutions: communicating new perspectives from the frontlines of ocean acidification research

Joshua Brown

Ocean acidification science has evolved rapidly over the past decade. This research landscape has shifted in two important directions. First, the scale of investigation, once limited to global or open ocean scale observations, has broadened with focus on resolving local expression and impacts of OA. Second, research that was almost exclusively restricted to understanding and forecasting exposure and impacts is now complimented by studies on the local actions and solutions for OA mitigation and adaptation. These shifts have created new opportunities for a communications arena where the need for local, solutions-based messages have been identified as key barriers to engagement. At the same time, the lack of effective communications tools that make new research knowledge readily accessible to a range of audience groups has also been recognized as a priority area of need.
 
To address these gaps, we propose to develop a series of audience-specific videos that focuses on local actions and solutions that are underway in Oregon to address OA. By telling the stories of 1) a citizen science OA monitoring network, 2) efforts to breed a better (more OA-resistant) oyster, 3) shellfish hatcheries adapting to change, and 4) new benefits from seagrass beds in mitigating OA, we aim to broaden the OA narrative to include messages of positive actions. We will produce videos that are tailored for 3 groups of audiences (estimated numbers reached): high school students that will receive a new OA curriculum module (~200), aquarium visitors on the Oregon Coast (up to 150,000/yr), and engaged stakeholders visiting a new Oregon ocean story map site (~1000) and/or attend public forums on coastal issues (~400).  The project team comprises a partnership between Oregon Sea Grant, and representatives from academic research (Oregon State University) and environmental NGO’s (Surfrider Foundation).

Friday, April 28, 2017
Categories: Projects

Tracking Ocean Alkalinity using New Carbon Measurement Technologies (TAACT)

Joe Salisbury

This project will expand the quantity and quality of ocean acidification (OA) monitoring across Northeastern U.S. coastal waters. The new OA data and incorporation of the world’s first commercial total alkalinity (TA) sensor into our regional observing system (NERACOOS) are designed to supply needed baseline information in support of a healthy and sustainable shellfish industry, and to aid in assessments and projections for wild fisheries. In working with partners to develop this proposal, clear concerns were brought forward regarding the potential impacts of increasing ocean acidity that extend from nearshore hatcheries and aquaculture to broader Gulf of Maine finfish and shellfish industries and their management. Stakeholder input and needs shaped the project scope such that both nearshore and offshore users will be served by TA sensor deployments on partner platforms, including time series data collection at an oyster aquaculture site, on the NOAA Ship of Opportunity AX-2 line, and on federal and State of Maine regional fish trawl surveys. In all, five different deployment platforms will be used to enhance ocean acidification monitoring within the Northeast Coastal Acidification Network (NE-CAN) with significant improvement in temporal and spatial coverage.

 Adding the all-new TA measurement capability to the regional observation network will provide more accurate, certain, and reliable OA monitoring, and an important project objective is to demonstrate and relay this information to regional partners. Data products to be developed from the multi-year measurements include nearshore and offshore baseline OA seasonal time series as well as threshold indices tied to acidification impacts on larval production at the Mook Sea Farm oyster hatchery. An outreach and technical supervision component will include the transfer of carbonate system observing technologies to our partners and to the broader fishing industry, resource management, and science communities. NERACOOS will provide data management and communication (DMAC) services and work towards implementing these technological advances into the IOOS network.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017
Categories: Projects

Turning the headlights on 'high': Improving an ocean acidification observation system in support of Pacific coast shellfish growers

Jan Newton, University of Washington

Working across four IOOS Regional Associations in partnership with the shellfish industry and other groups affected by ocean acidification (OA), our proposal is divided into four tasks that continue the foundational aspects established to date and expand both technical capacity and the development of new technology with respect to OA observing needs for shellfish growers and other related impacted and potentially vulnerable U.S. industries, governments (tribal, state, local) and other stakeholders. Our proposed work includes development of observing technology, expert oversight intelligence, data dissemination, and outreach and will be executed by a team that includes a sensor technology industry and academic and government scientists. We will: 1) Develop new lower cost and higher accuracy sensor technology for OA monitoring and expand them to new sites; 2) Utilize regional partnerships of users and local experts to implement and provide Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) tests of the new OA sensors; 3) Establish data handling and dissemination mechanisms that provide both user-friendly and standards-based web service access that are exportable from the Pacific Coast module to the entirety of U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS); and 4) Provide education and outreach services to stakeholders concerned about and potentially impacted by OA.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017
Categories: Projects
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