This project uses data from experimental studies on the biological effects of ocean acidification (OA), largely funded by NOAA's Ocean Acidification Program (OAP), to construct realistic population‐process models of marine finfish populations. The models are of an individual‐ based model (IBM) category that use detailed biological responses of individuals to OA. This tool synthesizes OA data in two different ways. First, it accumulates and connects data through mechanistic relationships between the environment and fish life‐history. Second, it allows exploration of the population‐level consequences of CO2 effects (the source of OA) which explicitly include population effects carried over from the highly sensitive early life‐stages (ELS). This information is fundamental to understanding the community and ecosystem effects of OA on living marine resources.
Project efforts are directed at two different, complimentary levels. At the more detailed, specific level, winter flounder – an economically important, well‐studied fish of Mid‐Atlantic to New England waters – will be used as a model subject. Prior studies on winter flounder, augmented by OAP‐funded experimental work at NOAA/NEFSC, will provide estimates of CO2 effects on key life‐history and ecological parameters (e.g., fertilization, larval growth, development, and survival). An IBM previously developed by the PIs will be updated and expanded to include OA effects on these parameters. The winter flounder OA‐IBM will be exercised by evaluating the responses of the ELSs of this species under multiple scenarios: high average levels of CO2 representing future oceans in shelf habitats; high and variable CO2 depicting future inshore, estuarine habitats; and covariances of CO2 with other environmental stressors (e.g., warmer waters, hypoxia). At a general level and applicable to other species, the project will develop a web‐based tool that allows users to add details from other marine finfish of the NE USA and OA‐affected processes as relevant OA data on those species become available.