DEVELOPING FORECASTS
HOW CAN WE ADAPT?

 

Societal impacts and adaptation strategies

Ocean acidification is a threat to food security, economies, and culture because of its potential impacts on marine ecosystem services. Information on how ocean acidification will impact ecosystems and the services they provide can help guide how we adapt to and mitigate forecasted changes.


ECONOMIC MODELING

The OAP funds modeling studies to advance our understanding of the impacts of ocean acidification on coastal ecosystems and fisheries.

Scientists can use a wide variety of models to project the potential progression of acidification in different regions, the impacts that changes in chemistry may have on marine life, and how these changes could affect a variety of ecosystem services including fisheries, aquaculture, and protection of coasts by coral reefs. For example, projections of ocean acidification can be incorporated into food-web models to better understand how changing ocean chemistry could affect harvested species, protected species, and the structure of the food web itself. Economic-forecast models can be used to analyze the economic impacts of potential changes in fisheries harvest caused by ocean acidification.


Figure from: Harvey et al. 2010

Ecosystem Modeling

Experiments on species response suggest that ocean acidification will directly affect a wide variety of organisms from calcifying shellfish and coral to fish and phytoplankton. Ecosystem models can capture the complex effects of ocean acidification on entire ecosystems.

How marine organisms respond to ocean acidification will be influenced by their reaction to chemistry change and their interactions with others species, such as their predators and prey. Scientists use ecosystem models to understand how ocean chemistry may affect entire ecosystems because they account for the complex interactions between organisms. Output from such modeling exercises can inform management of fisheries, protected species, and other important natural resources. Because ecosystem feedbacks are complex, understanding the uncertainty associated with these models is critical to effective management.


Economic Projections

Projections of the economic impacts of ocean acidification can be created by combining economic models with findings from laboratory experiments and ecological models.

For example, these links can be made for port communities or specific fisheries through modeling changes in fish harvest. Researchers at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center have developed bio-economic forecasts for the economically and culturally important species red king crab. Researchers at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center are developing projections of how the economies of regional port communities might be altered by potential changes in West Coast fisheries caused by ocean acidification.

 

How can we adapt to our changing ocean? 

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) is working to build knowledge about how to adapt to the consequences of ocean acidification (OA) and conserve marine ecosystems as acidification occurs.

 

 

FORECASTING

TECHNOLOGY

MANAGEMENT


FROM OBSERVATIONS TO FORECASTS

Turning current observations into forecasts is the key mechanism by which adaptation plans are created.

Forecasting provides insight into a vision of the future by using models that visualize how quickly and where ocean chemistry will be changing in tandem with an understanding of how sensitive marine resources and communities are to these changes.  By making predictions about the future, we can better adapt and prepare for ocean acidification. Coastal forecasts for ocean acidification are currently being developed for the West Coast, Chesapeake Bay, the East Coast, Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico. Ocean acidification hotspots are areas that are particularly vulnerable, either from a biological, economic, or cultural perspective. Identification of these hot spots in coastal waters is a priority for the Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs), fostered by the Ocean Acidification Program around the country. These networks bring together scientists, decision makers, fishermen and other stakeholders to identify and answer the most important questions about acidification and its effects in the region.

 

NOAA scientists have played an important role in development of the J-SCOPE forecast system, used to create seasonal forecasts for the North Pacific region. These forecasts will allow fisheries managers to predict seasonal outlooks for management decisions.


TECHNOLOGY

Developing innovative tools to help monitor ocean acidification and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally


MANAGEMENT TOOLS

Management strategies use information provided by research and tools that can be used to make sound decisions to effectively conserve marine resources. Baseline research about organism and community sensitivity to ocean acidification is incorporated into these strategies, in an effort to sustain these resources for the future.

Before management plans can be created it is necessary to have baseline research about the effects of ocean acidification on marine resources, such as Pacific oysters, Dungeness crabs and rockfish. The OAP funds NOAA Fisheries Science Centers to expose various life stages of valuable species to present and future acidification conditions. The biological response research is then incorporated into models that can be used to create tools for managers to use so that they can test different scenarios on species’ populations and habitats.  Modeling efforts led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution are now being used to produce one of these tools for Atlantic sea scallop fisheries. The dashboard will allow managers to test the impacts of different management actions on scallop populations.  In the Pacific Northwest, NOAA, the University of Washington, and shellfish industry scientists have formed a strong partnership to adapt to ocean acidification impacts that have already affected the shellfish industry. Together these researchers determined that acidification was threatening oyster production and offered an approach to address it. They installed equipment to monitor carbon chemistry at shellfish hatcheries and worked with hatchery managers to develop methods that protect developing oyster larvae from exposure to low pH waters.   Early warning tools are now being used to forecast seasonal acidification conditions to enable shellfish growers to adapt their practices.

 


EXPLORE THE IOOS Pacific Region Ocean Acidification
Data portal

This portal provides a real-time data stream of ocean acidification data that can be used by shellfish growers, regional managers, stakeholders and the public. The portal can be used to make resource decisions and build adaptation strategies.


OAP SUPPORTED Societal impact PROJECTS

Ocean Acidification: Building a Path Toward Adaptation in the Arctic

Ocean Acidification: Building a Path Toward Adaptation in the Arctic

NOAA Ocean Acidification Program

Author: Anonym/Wednesday, February 8, 2017/Categories: socio-economic impacts, adaptation strategies, arctic, Featured, OAP Original News Stories, OA News

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Scientists, economists, and stakeholders from all eight Arctic countries forge a path forward in adapting to ocean acidification in the Arctic

Arctic waters are rapidly changing. In the coming decades, these high-latitude waters will undergo significant shifts that could affect fish, shellfish, marine mammals, along with the livelihoods and well-being of communities dependent on these resources.

Ocean acidification is one of the big changes Arctic communities face. About one third of the rampant carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere is absorbed, like a sponge, by the ocean which increases the acidity of ocean waters. In the cold waters of the Arctic, where acidification is happening more quickly than in other parts of the globe, marine life are especially susceptible. 

Arctic indigenous and subsistence fishing communities are particularly vulnerable to changes in marine resource availability as there are often limited cultural or nutritional substitutes. To reduce the vulnerability of indigenous people, scientists, economists, and stakeholders from all eight Arctic countries are working to build a path forward to adapt to ocean acidification.

Ocean acidification is rapidly progressing in the Arctic

In 2013, the Arctic Monitoring Assessment Programme (AMAP) ocean acidification expert group comprehensively evaluated the status and possible consequences of ocean acidification in the Arctic. This led to the first global alert and confirmation that Arctic waters are experiencing widespread and rapid acidification, highlighting that the livelihoods of Arctic communities may be affected.

NOAA researchers have found that waters of northern Alaska, including the Chukchi and Beaufort seas could experience chemical changes by 2030 that threaten the ability of animals to build and maintain skeletons and shells. Just south, in the Bering Sea, the same threshold may be reached by 2044. Acidification affects the development of young Tanner crabs in laboratory experiments, an economically important species in Alaska.  If these same effects are seen in their natural habitat, the catches and profits of Tanner crabs can be expected to be half of what they are today within 20 years.

Risk assessments for Alaskan fisheries, which combine our understanding of changing ocean chemistry with biological and economic impacts, show that the regions in southeast and southwest Alaska that are highly reliant on fishery harvests likely face the highest risk from acidification.

Arctic communities rely on marine resources

Arctic communities rely heavily on marine resources for food, spiritual and cultural heritage and livelihoods.  The importance of incorporating cultural value into ongoing and future bio-economic models is of paramount concern for Katya Wassillie from the Eskimo Walrus Commission.

“The overall wellbeing of indigenous communities depends on their ability to continue subsistence lifestyles, says Wassillie. “The ability to harvest marine resources is a central component to their culture.”

Jeremy Mathis, Director of NOAA’s Arctic Research Program, has worked on ocean acidification in Alaska for the past decade and knows that adaptation will mean something different to each Arctic community.

“Some sectors of Alaska’s marine economy might be explicitly tied to one fishery,” Mathis explained. “Adaptation to acidification will require forward-thinking and strong partnerships across the Arctic nations.”

A coalition of economists, scientists, and stakeholders forging a path together

In October 2016 NOAA led a Pathways to Adaptation workshop where scientists, economists, and marine resource managers worked together to develop strategies for Arctic populations to adapt to the impacts of ocean acidification.  Workshop participant, Lisa Suatoni of the National Resources Defense Council explained, “We know water chemistry is rapidly changing the Arctic. The Pathways to Adaptation workshop joined physical and social scientists together with fishing industry and indigenous community members to begin to identify real steps to address societal vulnerabilities to acidification.”

To bolster adaptation efforts, regional networks can serve as a channel to transfer information to indigenous communities so they have the information to build bottom-up adaptation planning. With support from the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network, an arctic regional network could serve as a regional hub and promote collaboration and cooperation among scientists, resources users, and stakeholders across international borders.

Within the US, the 2016 launch of the Alaska Ocean Acidification Network is engaging and coordinating with Alaskan communities. The network will connect scientists and stakeholder communities, including native tribes, to identify regional priorities, develop monitoring tools and share data and information. One initiative includes outfitting tribal-managed hatcheries with ocean chemistry monitoring systems to allow tribes to understand and adapt to changing conditions. By developing new ideas and partnerships this region of the Arctic will be better equipped to adapt.

Adaptation in the Arctic

The expansive Arctic is facing many environmental changes and challenges. “Ocean acidification is part of the matrix of the rapidly changing Arctic environment and, for some organisms, may be the straw that breaks the camel's back” said Professor Richard Bellerby, Director of the SKLEC-NIVA Centre for Coastal and Marine Research and co-lead of the AMAP Ocean Acidification working group.

Arctic communities are among the first to experience changes due to warming and acidification, and are the sentinels in adapting to changing conditions. Strategies for dealing with, and adapting to acidification in the Arctic can be applied to other regions of the world as effects take hold in lower latitudes.

Adaptation is a process, not an outcome. Ocean acidification in the Arctic is a challenge that is better tackled with diverse expertise across all Arctic nations.  As resources managers, scientists, and Arctic communities continue to gather information, communicate, and work with one another, the pathway to adaptation will be strengthened. 

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