DEVELOPING FORECASTS
HOW CAN WE ADAPT?

 

Societal impacts and adaptation strategies

Ocean acidification is a threat to food security, economies, and culture because of its potential impacts on marine ecosystem services. Information on how ocean acidification will impact ecosystems and the services they provide can help guide how we adapt to and mitigate forecasted changes.


ECONOMIC MODELING

The OAP funds modeling studies to advance our understanding of the impacts of ocean acidification on coastal ecosystems and fisheries.

Scientists can use a wide variety of models to project the potential progression of acidification in different regions, the impacts that changes in chemistry may have on marine life, and how these changes could affect a variety of ecosystem services including fisheries, aquaculture, and protection of coasts by coral reefs. For example, projections of ocean acidification can be incorporated into food-web models to better understand how changing ocean chemistry could affect harvested species, protected species, and the structure of the food web itself. Economic-forecast models can be used to analyze the economic impacts of potential changes in fisheries harvest caused by ocean acidification.


Figure from: Harvey et al. 2010

Ecosystem Modeling

Experiments on species response suggest that ocean acidification will directly affect a wide variety of organisms from calcifying shellfish and coral to fish and phytoplankton. Ecosystem models can capture the complex effects of ocean acidification on entire ecosystems.

How marine organisms respond to ocean acidification will be influenced by their reaction to chemistry change and their interactions with others species, such as their predators and prey. Scientists use ecosystem models to understand how ocean chemistry may affect entire ecosystems because they account for the complex interactions between organisms. Output from such modeling exercises can inform management of fisheries, protected species, and other important natural resources. Because ecosystem feedbacks are complex, understanding the uncertainty associated with these models is critical to effective management.


Economic Projections

Projections of the economic impacts of ocean acidification can be created by combining economic models with findings from laboratory experiments and ecological models.

For example, these links can be made for port communities or specific fisheries through modeling changes in fish harvest. Researchers at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center have developed bio-economic forecasts for the economically and culturally important species red king crab. Researchers at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center are developing projections of how the economies of regional port communities might be altered by potential changes in West Coast fisheries caused by ocean acidification.

 

How can we adapt to our changing ocean? 

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) is working to build knowledge about how to adapt to the consequences of ocean acidification (OA) and conserve marine ecosystems as acidification occurs.

 

 

FORECASTING

TECHNOLOGY

MANAGEMENT


FROM OBSERVATIONS TO FORECASTS

Turning current observations into forecasts is the key mechanism by which adaptation plans are created.

Forecasting provides insight into a vision of the future by using models that visualize how quickly and where ocean chemistry will be changing in tandem with an understanding of how sensitive marine resources and communities are to these changes.  By making predictions about the future, we can better adapt and prepare for ocean acidification. Coastal forecasts for ocean acidification are currently being developed for the West Coast, Chesapeake Bay, the East Coast, Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico. Ocean acidification hotspots are areas that are particularly vulnerable, either from a biological, economic, or cultural perspective. Identification of these hot spots in coastal waters is a priority for the Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs), fostered by the Ocean Acidification Program around the country. These networks bring together scientists, decision makers, fishermen and other stakeholders to identify and answer the most important questions about acidification and its effects in the region.

 

NOAA scientists have played an important role in development of the J-SCOPE forecast system, used to create seasonal forecasts for the North Pacific region. These forecasts will allow fisheries managers to predict seasonal outlooks for management decisions.


TECHNOLOGY

Developing innovative tools to help monitor ocean acidification and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally


MANAGEMENT TOOLS

Management strategies use information provided by research and tools that can be used to make sound decisions to effectively conserve marine resources. Baseline research about organism and community sensitivity to ocean acidification is incorporated into these strategies, in an effort to sustain these resources for the future.

Before management plans can be created it is necessary to have baseline research about the effects of ocean acidification on marine resources, such as Pacific oysters, Dungeness crabs and rockfish. The OAP funds NOAA Fisheries Science Centers to expose various life stages of valuable species to present and future acidification conditions. The biological response research is then incorporated into models that can be used to create tools for managers to use so that they can test different scenarios on species’ populations and habitats.  Modeling efforts led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution are now being used to produce one of these tools for Atlantic sea scallop fisheries. The dashboard will allow managers to test the impacts of different management actions on scallop populations.  In the Pacific Northwest, NOAA, the University of Washington, and shellfish industry scientists have formed a strong partnership to adapt to ocean acidification impacts that have already affected the shellfish industry. Together these researchers determined that acidification was threatening oyster production and offered an approach to address it. They installed equipment to monitor carbon chemistry at shellfish hatcheries and worked with hatchery managers to develop methods that protect developing oyster larvae from exposure to low pH waters.   Early warning tools are now being used to forecast seasonal acidification conditions to enable shellfish growers to adapt their practices.

 

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CONNECTING PEOPLE ACROSS REGIONS AND DISCIPLINES

Ocean acidification is a global challenge, and the most effective adaptation strategies are holistic, incorporating the knowledge and experiences of many sectors. As an answer to the difficulty of bridging geographic and professional divides, together with the Interagency Working Group on Ocean Acidification, NOAA helped launch the Ocean Acidification Information Exchange, an online community and discussion forum.

The OA Information Exchange is designed to make it easy  to connect and find information, with tools to post updates, share documents, media, links, and events with fellow members. The site welcomes scientists, educators, students, policy makers, members of industry, and concerned citizens to help fulfill the mission of building a well-informed community ready to respond and adapt to ocean and coastal acidification. If you would like to join the conversation, please request an account at oainfoexchange.org/request-account.html


EXPLORE THE IOOS Pacific Region Ocean Acidification
Data portal

This portal provides a real-time data stream of ocean acidification data that can be used by shellfish growers, regional managers, stakeholders and the public. The portal can be used to make resource decisions and build adaptation strategies.


OAP SUPPORTED Societal impact PROJECTS

Sixth Report on Federally Funded Ocean Acidification Monitoring and Research

Advancing Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring

The Interagency Working Group on Ocean Acidification of the National Science and Technology Council’s Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology released their Sixth Report on Federally Funded Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Activities. The report highlights a range of research activities from measuring where and when ocean acidification occurs, understanding the impact of ocean and coastal acidification on ecosystems and communities, to identifying potential ocean-based climate solutions. The report included projects that advance observations and modeling of ocean carbon, test new technology developments, study potential socioeconomic impacts of ocean acidification, and conduct public education and outreach. Collectively, this research provides important insights that will enable managers and communities to better anticipate and respond to ocean and coastal acidification.

White House Announcement

Link to Report

Tuesday, November 1, 2022
NOAA Invests in Harmful Algal Bloom and Ocean Acidification Research

NOAA Invests in Harmful Algal Bloom and Ocean Acidification Research

NOAA invests $18.9M in a coordinated effort to maximize advances in harmful algal bloom (HAB) mitigation, monitoring and forecasting. Four of new research awards support ($1.5M) funded in partnership by NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) and NOAA’s Ocean Acidification program will determine interactive effects of HABs and ocean acidification. Other projects supported through this effort will establish a U.S. Harmful Algal Bloom Control Incubator, enhance detection of HAB toxins and improve forecasts and investigate the socioeconomic impacts of HABs. Read more

Project Highlights

University of MichiganUniversity of Minnesota DuluthOberlin CollegeUniversity of Kentucky, and University of Toledo received $281,975 to improve our understanding of the synergistic impacts of acidification, temperature, total alkalinity, and nutrients on toxic cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms in the Great Lakes. 

Woods Hole Oceanographic InstituteBowdoin College, and NERACOOS received $499,999 to address gaps in understanding relationships between harmful algal bloom behavior and ocean acidification in the northeast Atlantic, especially where it is associated with coastal eutrophication and hypoxia.

Stony Brook UniversityAdelphi University, and St. Joseph's College received $364,265 to establish a comprehensive understanding of how three of the most prominent HABs on the US east coast respond to ocean acidification, and how their co-occurrence will economically impact fisheries and shellfisheries. 

Northwest Indian CollegeSan Francisco State University, and University of Washington received $355,281 to understand the current relationships between ocean acidification and harmful algal bloom interactions in the Salish Sea, and to quantify how ocean acidification influences growth and toxicity. 

📸 Autonomous glider collects information to track harmful algal blooms and water quality. Credit: Ben Yair Raanan, MBARI


Wednesday, October 19, 2022
Join us for the Ocean Acidification Community Meeting Jan 4-6, 2023

Join us for the Ocean Acidification Community Meeting Jan 4-6, 2023

NOAA OAP convenes community meeting in San Diego, CA!

Every three years, the NOAA Ocean Acidification Program convenes researchers, communicators and others in the OA community for a meeting to discuss and share the latest research and future needs and directions. We want your participation! Registration is free.

Meeting Goals

  • Shape the future strategic direction of the OAP

  • Inform community members of recent OAP-supported efforts

  • Foster collaborations within the OA research community

  • Identify critical research gaps and efforts to address them

  • Highlight and discuss diversity, equity, inclusion, accessibility, and justice in OA research and our community

Find more details and register HERE.

Wednesday, September 28, 2022
Evaluating impacts of acidification on biological processes in the Gulf of Mexico

Evaluating impacts of acidification on biological processes in the Gulf of Mexico

Leticia Barbero - NOAA CIMAS, University of Miami

Evaluation of OA impacts to plankton and fish distributions in the Gulf of Mexico during GOMECC-4 with a focus on HAB-interactions

Why we care
Ocean change in the Gulf of Mexico, including acidification and eutrophication, can impact biodiversity and the flow of energy through ecosystems from microscopic phytoplankton to higher trophic levels like fish. These processes can impact the health of fisheries and coastal ecosystems. This project collects information to evaluate the links between ocean conditions and important species in the Gulf of Mexico. 

What we are doing
During the 4th Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem and Carbon Cruise (GOMECC-4), scientists collect samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and ichthyoplankton to characterize fish distribution and abundance, larval fish condition and diet, microplastic abundance, and harmful algal bloom species. These collections coincide with measurements of acidification, oxygen, and eutrophication to make connections between ocean chemistry and biology.

Benefits of our work
This project will help characterize how changes in ocean conditions interact with biological processes like harmful algal bloom formation and ecosystem productivity that are important to local fisheries and stakeholders.


Wednesday, August 31, 2022

Understanding biodiversity in the Gulf of Mexico using eDNA

Luke Thompson - Mississippi State University

Assessing ecosystem responses of Gulf of Mexico coastal communities to ocean acidification using environmental DNA

Why we care 
Recent efforts to monitor ocean acidification in the Gulf of Mexico via the Gulf of Mexico Ecosystems and Carbon Cycle (GOMECC) cruises have revealed spatial differences in ocean acidification. While we know that ocean acidification negatively impacts many species and exacerbates the effects of oxygen limitation and harmful algal blooms, there is little work to monitor or predict the effects of ocean acidification on biodiversity. This project employs cutting-edge technology using environmental DNA to assess biodiversity in different conditions in the Gulf of Mexico region.

What we are doing
Every organism sheds DNA. This project analyzes environmental DNA (eDNA), which is free-floating or microscopic DNA found in seawater, collected during the 4th GOMECC cruise, to identify biodiversity of bacteria, plankton, and fish in the Gulf of Mexico. eDNA will be compared to ocean properties to draw conclusions about drivers of biodiversity. 

Benefits of our work
Links between eDNA, ocean acidification, and other ocean properties will provide a deeper understanding of environmental drivers of biodiversity. These relationships can inform predictions of biodiversity patterns and guide the management of key habitats in the Gulf of Mexico, and help us adapt to changing ocean conditions.


Tuesday, June 14, 2022
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