DEVELOPING FORECASTS
HOW CAN WE ADAPT?

 

Societal impacts and adaptation strategies

Ocean acidification is a threat to food security, economies, and culture because of its potential impacts on marine ecosystem services. Information on how ocean acidification will impact ecosystems and the services they provide can help guide how we adapt to and mitigate forecasted changes.


ECONOMIC MODELING

The OAP funds modeling studies to advance our understanding of the impacts of ocean acidification on coastal ecosystems and fisheries.

Scientists can use a wide variety of models to project the potential progression of acidification in different regions, the impacts that changes in chemistry may have on marine life, and how these changes could affect a variety of ecosystem services including fisheries, aquaculture, and protection of coasts by coral reefs. For example, projections of ocean acidification can be incorporated into food-web models to better understand how changing ocean chemistry could affect harvested species, protected species, and the structure of the food web itself. Economic-forecast models can be used to analyze the economic impacts of potential changes in fisheries harvest caused by ocean acidification.


Figure from: Harvey et al. 2010

Ecosystem Modeling

Experiments on species response suggest that ocean acidification will directly affect a wide variety of organisms from calcifying shellfish and coral to fish and phytoplankton. Ecosystem models can capture the complex effects of ocean acidification on entire ecosystems.

How marine organisms respond to ocean acidification will be influenced by their reaction to chemistry change and their interactions with others species, such as their predators and prey. Scientists use ecosystem models to understand how ocean chemistry may affect entire ecosystems because they account for the complex interactions between organisms. Output from such modeling exercises can inform management of fisheries, protected species, and other important natural resources. Because ecosystem feedbacks are complex, understanding the uncertainty associated with these models is critical to effective management.


Economic Projections

Projections of the economic impacts of ocean acidification can be created by combining economic models with findings from laboratory experiments and ecological models.

For example, these links can be made for port communities or specific fisheries through modeling changes in fish harvest. Researchers at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center have developed bio-economic forecasts for the economically and culturally important species red king crab. Researchers at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center are developing projections of how the economies of regional port communities might be altered by potential changes in West Coast fisheries caused by ocean acidification.

 

How can we adapt to our changing ocean? 

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) is working to build knowledge about how to adapt to the consequences of ocean acidification (OA) and conserve marine ecosystems as acidification occurs.

 

 

FORECASTING

TECHNOLOGY

MANAGEMENT


FROM OBSERVATIONS TO FORECASTS

Turning current observations into forecasts is the key mechanism by which adaptation plans are created.

Forecasting provides insight into a vision of the future by using models that visualize how quickly and where ocean chemistry will be changing in tandem with an understanding of how sensitive marine resources and communities are to these changes.  By making predictions about the future, we can better adapt and prepare for ocean acidification. Coastal forecasts for ocean acidification are currently being developed for the West Coast, Chesapeake Bay, the East Coast, Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico. Ocean acidification hotspots are areas that are particularly vulnerable, either from a biological, economic, or cultural perspective. Identification of these hot spots in coastal waters is a priority for the Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs), fostered by the Ocean Acidification Program around the country. These networks bring together scientists, decision makers, fishermen and other stakeholders to identify and answer the most important questions about acidification and its effects in the region.

 

NOAA scientists have played an important role in development of the J-SCOPE forecast system, used to create seasonal forecasts for the North Pacific region. These forecasts will allow fisheries managers to predict seasonal outlooks for management decisions.


TECHNOLOGY

Developing innovative tools to help monitor ocean acidification and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally


MANAGEMENT TOOLS

Management strategies use information provided by research and tools that can be used to make sound decisions to effectively conserve marine resources. Baseline research about organism and community sensitivity to ocean acidification is incorporated into these strategies, in an effort to sustain these resources for the future.

Before management plans can be created it is necessary to have baseline research about the effects of ocean acidification on marine resources, such as Pacific oysters, Dungeness crabs and rockfish. The OAP funds NOAA Fisheries Science Centers to expose various life stages of valuable species to present and future acidification conditions. The biological response research is then incorporated into models that can be used to create tools for managers to use so that they can test different scenarios on species’ populations and habitats.  Modeling efforts led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution are now being used to produce one of these tools for Atlantic sea scallop fisheries. The dashboard will allow managers to test the impacts of different management actions on scallop populations.  In the Pacific Northwest, NOAA, the University of Washington, and shellfish industry scientists have formed a strong partnership to adapt to ocean acidification impacts that have already affected the shellfish industry. Together these researchers determined that acidification was threatening oyster production and offered an approach to address it. They installed equipment to monitor carbon chemistry at shellfish hatcheries and worked with hatchery managers to develop methods that protect developing oyster larvae from exposure to low pH waters.   Early warning tools are now being used to forecast seasonal acidification conditions to enable shellfish growers to adapt their practices.

 

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CONNECTING PEOPLE ACROSS REGIONS AND DISCIPLINES

Ocean acidification is a global challenge, and the most effective adaptation strategies are holistic, incorporating the knowledge and experiences of many sectors. As an answer to the difficulty of bridging geographic and professional divides, together with the Interagency Working Group on Ocean Acidification, NOAA helped launch the Ocean Acidification Information Exchange, an online community and discussion forum.

The OA Information Exchange is designed to make it easy  to connect and find information, with tools to post updates, share documents, media, links, and events with fellow members. The site welcomes scientists, educators, students, policy makers, members of industry, and concerned citizens to help fulfill the mission of building a well-informed community ready to respond and adapt to ocean and coastal acidification. If you would like to join the conversation, please request an account at oainfoexchange.org/request-account.html


EXPLORE THE IOOS Pacific Region Ocean Acidification
Data portal

This portal provides a real-time data stream of ocean acidification data that can be used by shellfish growers, regional managers, stakeholders and the public. The portal can be used to make resource decisions and build adaptation strategies.


OAP SUPPORTED Societal impact PROJECTS

New NOAA Research Strategy for Carbon Dioxide Removal

Join the Listening Sessions

Help guide NOAA's role in exploring Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) research as a way to mitigate climate change. NOAA invites the public to read the draft CDR research strategy to review all 11 carbon dioxide removal techniques and strategies, evaluate NOAA’s proposed role in carbon dioxide removal research and provide comments (a Federal Register Notice with instructions for submitting comments will be published shortly). This document was developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Carbon Dioxide Removal Task Force (CDR Task Force), a cross-NOAA interdisciplinary team with relevant expertise in climate and carbon, coastal and open ocean science, aquaculture development, and ocean conservation.


Join us at one of the listening sessions to provide your input to NOAA. REGISTER for free.

Virtual listening sessions will be held:

  • Monday, Dec 12 at 3 PM ET
  • Wednesday, Dec 14 at 10 AM ET
  • Wednesday, Dec 14 at 5 PM ET

View the PRESS RELEASE

 

Thursday, December 1, 2022

Announcing Funding Opportunity in Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal (mCDR)

Call for Proposals

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program on behalf of the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) solicits proposals focused on (a) expanding understanding of various aspects of marine Carbon Dioxide Removal (mCDR); (b) understanding associated co-benefits (including ocean acidification mitigation) and risks of marine CDR; and (c) the science needed to build building regulatory frameworks for both testing and scaling of marine CDR approaches. This knowledge will assist in the verification or invalidation of hypotheses regarding mCDR, in order to make informed decisions regarding a potential scaled negative carbon ocean industry. 

To be eligible under this NOPP funding opportunity, each proposing team must comprise participants from at least two of the following sectors: academia, private sector (including Non-Governmental Organizations, or NGOs), or government (including federal, tribal, state, and local). Participants in this multi-agency request for proposals include: NOAA (Ocean Acidification Program, Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program, US Integrated Ocean Observing System/US IOOS), the Department of Energy (Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, Water Power Technologies Office), Department of Navy (Office of Naval Research), the National Science Foundation (Chemical Oceanography Program) and philanthropies including ClimateWorks. 

View the FULL NOTICE OF FEDERAL FUNDING

An informational webinar will be held on December 7, 2022 at 4-5 pm ET. REGISTER HERE 
Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Sixth Report on Federally Funded Ocean Acidification Monitoring and Research

Advancing Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring

The Interagency Working Group on Ocean Acidification of the National Science and Technology Council’s Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology released their Sixth Report on Federally Funded Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Activities. The report highlights a range of research activities from measuring where and when ocean acidification occurs, understanding the impact of ocean and coastal acidification on ecosystems and communities, to identifying potential ocean-based climate solutions. The report included projects that advance observations and modeling of ocean carbon, test new technology developments, study potential socioeconomic impacts of ocean acidification, and conduct public education and outreach. Collectively, this research provides important insights that will enable managers and communities to better anticipate and respond to ocean and coastal acidification.

White House Announcement

Link to Report

Tuesday, November 1, 2022
NOAA Invests in Harmful Algal Bloom and Ocean Acidification Research

NOAA Invests in Harmful Algal Bloom and Ocean Acidification Research

NOAA invests $18.9M in a coordinated effort to maximize advances in harmful algal bloom (HAB) mitigation, monitoring and forecasting. Four of new research awards support ($1.5M) funded in partnership by NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) and NOAA’s Ocean Acidification program will determine interactive effects of HABs and ocean acidification. Other projects supported through this effort will establish a U.S. Harmful Algal Bloom Control Incubator, enhance detection of HAB toxins and improve forecasts and investigate the socioeconomic impacts of HABs. Read more

Project Highlights

University of MichiganUniversity of Minnesota DuluthOberlin CollegeUniversity of Kentucky, and University of Toledo received $281,975 to improve our understanding of the synergistic impacts of acidification, temperature, total alkalinity, and nutrients on toxic cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms in the Great Lakes. 

Woods Hole Oceanographic InstituteBowdoin College, and NERACOOS received $499,999 to address gaps in understanding relationships between harmful algal bloom behavior and ocean acidification in the northeast Atlantic, especially where it is associated with coastal eutrophication and hypoxia.

Stony Brook UniversityAdelphi University, and St. Joseph's College received $364,265 to establish a comprehensive understanding of how three of the most prominent HABs on the US east coast respond to ocean acidification, and how their co-occurrence will economically impact fisheries and shellfisheries. 

Northwest Indian CollegeSan Francisco State University, and University of Washington received $355,281 to understand the current relationships between ocean acidification and harmful algal bloom interactions in the Salish Sea, and to quantify how ocean acidification influences growth and toxicity. 

📸 Autonomous glider collects information to track harmful algal blooms and water quality. Credit: Ben Yair Raanan, MBARI


Wednesday, October 19, 2022
Join us for the Ocean Acidification Community Meeting Jan 4-6, 2023

Join us for the Ocean Acidification Community Meeting Jan 4-6, 2023

NOAA OAP convenes community meeting in San Diego, CA!

Every three years, the NOAA Ocean Acidification Program convenes researchers, communicators and others in the OA community for a meeting to discuss and share the latest research and future needs and directions. We want your participation! Registration is free.

Meeting Goals

  • Shape the future strategic direction of the OAP

  • Inform community members of recent OAP-supported efforts

  • Foster collaborations within the OA research community

  • Identify critical research gaps and efforts to address them

  • Highlight and discuss diversity, equity, inclusion, accessibility, and justice in OA research and our community

Find more details and register HERE.

Wednesday, September 28, 2022
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