DEVELOPING FORECASTS
HOW CAN WE ADAPT?

 

Societal impacts and adaptation strategies

Ocean acidification is a threat to food security, economies, and culture because of its potential impacts on marine ecosystem services. Information on how ocean acidification will impact ecosystems and the services they provide can help guide how we adapt to and mitigate forecasted changes.


ECONOMIC MODELING

The OAP funds modeling studies to advance our understanding of the impacts of ocean acidification on coastal ecosystems and fisheries.

Scientists can use a wide variety of models to project the potential progression of acidification in different regions, the impacts that changes in chemistry may have on marine life, and how these changes could affect a variety of ecosystem services including fisheries, aquaculture, and protection of coasts by coral reefs. For example, projections of ocean acidification can be incorporated into food-web models to better understand how changing ocean chemistry could affect harvested species, protected species, and the structure of the food web itself. Economic-forecast models can be used to analyze the economic impacts of potential changes in fisheries harvest caused by ocean acidification.


Figure from: Harvey et al. 2010

Ecosystem Modeling

Experiments on species response suggest that ocean acidification will directly affect a wide variety of organisms from calcifying shellfish and coral to fish and phytoplankton. Ecosystem models can capture the complex effects of ocean acidification on entire ecosystems.

How marine organisms respond to ocean acidification will be influenced by their reaction to chemistry change and their interactions with others species, such as their predators and prey. Scientists use ecosystem models to understand how ocean chemistry may affect entire ecosystems because they account for the complex interactions between organisms. Output from such modeling exercises can inform management of fisheries, protected species, and other important natural resources. Because ecosystem feedbacks are complex, understanding the uncertainty associated with these models is critical to effective management.


Economic Projections

Projections of the economic impacts of ocean acidification can be created by combining economic models with findings from laboratory experiments and ecological models.

For example, these links can be made for port communities or specific fisheries through modeling changes in fish harvest. Researchers at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center have developed bio-economic forecasts for the economically and culturally important species red king crab. Researchers at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center are developing projections of how the economies of regional port communities might be altered by potential changes in West Coast fisheries caused by ocean acidification.

 

How can we adapt to our changing ocean? 

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) is working to build knowledge about how to adapt to the consequences of ocean acidification (OA) and conserve marine ecosystems as acidification occurs.

 

 

FORECASTING

TECHNOLOGY

MANAGEMENT


FROM OBSERVATIONS TO FORECASTS

Turning current observations into forecasts is the key mechanism by which adaptation plans are created.

Forecasting provides insight into a vision of the future by using models that visualize how quickly and where ocean chemistry will be changing in tandem with an understanding of how sensitive marine resources and communities are to these changes.  By making predictions about the future, we can better adapt and prepare for ocean acidification. Coastal forecasts for ocean acidification are currently being developed for the West Coast, Chesapeake Bay, the East Coast, Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico. Ocean acidification hotspots are areas that are particularly vulnerable, either from a biological, economic, or cultural perspective. Identification of these hot spots in coastal waters is a priority for the Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs), fostered by the Ocean Acidification Program around the country. These networks bring together scientists, decision makers, fishermen and other stakeholders to identify and answer the most important questions about acidification and its effects in the region.

 

NOAA scientists have played an important role in development of the J-SCOPE forecast system, used to create seasonal forecasts for the North Pacific region. These forecasts will allow fisheries managers to predict seasonal outlooks for management decisions.


TECHNOLOGY

Developing innovative tools to help monitor ocean acidification and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally


MANAGEMENT TOOLS

Management strategies use information provided by research and tools that can be used to make sound decisions to effectively conserve marine resources. Baseline research about organism and community sensitivity to ocean acidification is incorporated into these strategies, in an effort to sustain these resources for the future.

Before management plans can be created it is necessary to have baseline research about the effects of ocean acidification on marine resources, such as Pacific oysters, Dungeness crabs and rockfish. The OAP funds NOAA Fisheries Science Centers to expose various life stages of valuable species to present and future acidification conditions. The biological response research is then incorporated into models that can be used to create tools for managers to use so that they can test different scenarios on species’ populations and habitats.  Modeling efforts led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution are now being used to produce one of these tools for Atlantic sea scallop fisheries. The dashboard will allow managers to test the impacts of different management actions on scallop populations.  In the Pacific Northwest, NOAA, the University of Washington, and shellfish industry scientists have formed a strong partnership to adapt to ocean acidification impacts that have already affected the shellfish industry. Together these researchers determined that acidification was threatening oyster production and offered an approach to address it. They installed equipment to monitor carbon chemistry at shellfish hatcheries and worked with hatchery managers to develop methods that protect developing oyster larvae from exposure to low pH waters.   Early warning tools are now being used to forecast seasonal acidification conditions to enable shellfish growers to adapt their practices.

 


EXPLORE THE IOOS Pacific Region Ocean Acidification
Data portal

This portal provides a real-time data stream of ocean acidification data that can be used by shellfish growers, regional managers, stakeholders and the public. The portal can be used to make resource decisions and build adaptation strategies.


OAP SUPPORTED Societal impact PROJECTS

Marine Scientist Position with focus on Ocean Acidification

State of Washington Department of Ecology

The Environmental Assessment Program (EAP) program within the Department of Ecology is looking to fill a Marine Scientist (Natural Resource Scientist 2) position. Applications are due April 24, 2018.

This position is located at our Headquarters Building in Lacey, WA but conducts work statewide. This position is responsible for conducting marine water quality monitoring, with a focus on ocean acidification. Responsibilities include implementing the addition of ocean acidification-relevant parameters to Ecology's marine waters monitoring program in Puget Sound. This position is also responsible for oceanographic sampling gear preparation and use, instrument calibration (CTD and other electronic sensors), laboratory sample analyses, data analysis, and report writing. The data collected is used to determine the status and trends of marine water quality in context to ocean acidification in Washington state.

More information here

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Postdoctoral Fellow in Chemical Oceanography

University of Delaware

The University of Delaware (UD) College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment is seeking applications for a Postdoctoral Research Scientist position in chemical oceanography and metrology. The successful candidate will work on a NOAA funded project to aid in the development of a reference material for ocean pH by establishing traceability of pH indicator dyes to the International System of Units (SI). The scholar will make use of state-of-the-art analytical and experimental facilities at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Candidates must have a PhD in either chemical oceanography, analytical chemistry, or a closely related field. Demonstrated skills with spectrophotometry, potentiometry, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and/or physical chemistry are preferred. The position will be located at the NIST facility in Gaithersburg, MD, but the appointment will be made through the University of Delaware. The postdoc will also attend field test cruises with the UD group. The appointment will be for one year, with continuation pending funding and progress.

Please contact Wei-Jun Cai (wcai@udel.edu) and Regina Easley (regina.easley@nist.gov) for additional information.

Wednesday, April 11, 2018
Old Bay with a new spice: a new buoy helps monitor how carbon dioxide is changing the Chesapeake Bay

Old Bay with a new spice: a new buoy helps monitor how carbon dioxide is changing the Chesapeake Bay

NOAA Ocean Acidification Program

A new Ocean Acidification monitoring buoy was deployed on April 5, 2018 in the largest United States estuary, the Chesapeake Bay. This is the first long-term ocean acidification monitoring buoy and it will be deployed at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. The buoy will measure carbon parameters in the estuary, which is particularly vulnerable to changes in carbonate chemistry. These changes could impact economically valuable resources for Bay communities, such as oysters. The data from this buoy will supply models with the information needed to recognize potential areas of vulnerability and what future chemical parameters may look like in the bay, while also expanding the National Ocean Acidification Observing Network. It will also help researchers at NOAA PMEL, University of Delaware and University of Maryland differentiate between human-caused and natural variations in carbonate chemistry in the estuary.


Friday, April 6, 2018
Nina Bednarsek Awarded SeaDoc Society Science Prize

Nina Bednarsek Awarded SeaDoc Society Science Prize

NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Dr. Nina Bednarsek has been awarded the biennial SeaDoc Society's’ Salish Sea Science Prize for her groundbreaking work on the impacts of ocean acidification on pteropods, planktonic marine snails, as well as enhancing policy and regulatory processes along the US West Coast. Dr. Bednarsek was an NRC postdoctoral research fellow with NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) from 2012 - 2015 where she worked with the Carbon Program. Dr. Bednarsek’s research with PMEL has found that the highest impacts on pteropods from ocean acidification is observed in the Salish Sea. Her results show that live pteropod shells undergo dissolution at aragonite saturation state values <1, which is commonly found in subsurface Salish Sea waters and along the Washington coast during the upwelling season. 

Wednesday, April 4, 2018
Assess, anticipate, adapt: Vulnerability and Responses to Ocean Acidification

Assess, anticipate, adapt: Vulnerability and Responses to Ocean Acidification

NOAA Ocean Acidification Program

There are areas in the United States where marine resources and the communities and industries that depend on them are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of ocean acidification. In three US regions, our understanding of vulnerability is being advanced by coupling ocean and social science data to equip communities and industries with the information needed to evaluate, anticipate, and adapt to ocean acidification.
Thursday, March 15, 2018
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