DEVELOPING FORECASTS
HOW CAN WE ADAPT?

 

Societal impacts and adaptation strategies

Ocean acidification is a threat to food security, economies, and culture because of its potential impacts on marine ecosystem services. Information on how ocean acidification will impact ecosystems and the services they provide can help guide how we adapt to and mitigate forecasted changes.


ECONOMIC MODELING

The OAP funds modeling studies to advance our understanding of the impacts of ocean acidification on coastal ecosystems and fisheries.

Scientists can use a wide variety of models to project the potential progression of acidification in different regions, the impacts that changes in chemistry may have on marine life, and how these changes could affect a variety of ecosystem services including fisheries, aquaculture, and protection of coasts by coral reefs. For example, projections of ocean acidification can be incorporated into food-web models to better understand how changing ocean chemistry could affect harvested species, protected species, and the structure of the food web itself. Economic-forecast models can be used to analyze the economic impacts of potential changes in fisheries harvest caused by ocean acidification.


Figure from: Harvey et al. 2010

Ecosystem Modeling

Experiments on species response suggest that ocean acidification will directly affect a wide variety of organisms from calcifying shellfish and coral to fish and phytoplankton. Ecosystem models can capture the complex effects of ocean acidification on entire ecosystems.

How marine organisms respond to ocean acidification will be influenced by their reaction to chemistry change and their interactions with others species, such as their predators and prey. Scientists use ecosystem models to understand how ocean chemistry may affect entire ecosystems because they account for the complex interactions between organisms. Output from such modeling exercises can inform management of fisheries, protected species, and other important natural resources. Because ecosystem feedbacks are complex, understanding the uncertainty associated with these models is critical to effective management.


Economic Projections

Projections of the economic impacts of ocean acidification can be created by combining economic models with findings from laboratory experiments and ecological models.

For example, these links can be made for port communities or specific fisheries through modeling changes in fish harvest. Researchers at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center have developed bio-economic forecasts for the economically and culturally important species red king crab. Researchers at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center are developing projections of how the economies of regional port communities might be altered by potential changes in West Coast fisheries caused by ocean acidification.

 

How can we adapt to our changing ocean? 

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) is working to build knowledge about how to adapt to the consequences of ocean acidification (OA) and conserve marine ecosystems as acidification occurs.

 

 

FORECASTING

TECHNOLOGY

MANAGEMENT


FROM OBSERVATIONS TO FORECASTS

Turning current observations into forecasts is the key mechanism by which adaptation plans are created.

Forecasting provides insight into a vision of the future by using models that visualize how quickly and where ocean chemistry will be changing in tandem with an understanding of how sensitive marine resources and communities are to these changes.  By making predictions about the future, we can better adapt and prepare for ocean acidification. Coastal forecasts for ocean acidification are currently being developed for the West Coast, Chesapeake Bay, the East Coast, Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico. Ocean acidification hotspots are areas that are particularly vulnerable, either from a biological, economic, or cultural perspective. Identification of these hot spots in coastal waters is a priority for the Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs), fostered by the Ocean Acidification Program around the country. These networks bring together scientists, decision makers, fishermen and other stakeholders to identify and answer the most important questions about acidification and its effects in the region.

 

NOAA scientists have played an important role in development of the J-SCOPE forecast system, used to create seasonal forecasts for the North Pacific region. These forecasts will allow fisheries managers to predict seasonal outlooks for management decisions.


TECHNOLOGY

Developing innovative tools to help monitor ocean acidification and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally


MANAGEMENT TOOLS

Management strategies use information provided by research and tools that can be used to make sound decisions to effectively conserve marine resources. Baseline research about organism and community sensitivity to ocean acidification is incorporated into these strategies, in an effort to sustain these resources for the future.

Before management plans can be created it is necessary to have baseline research about the effects of ocean acidification on marine resources, such as Pacific oysters, Dungeness crabs and rockfish. The OAP funds NOAA Fisheries Science Centers to expose various life stages of valuable species to present and future acidification conditions. The biological response research is then incorporated into models that can be used to create tools for managers to use so that they can test different scenarios on species’ populations and habitats.  Modeling efforts led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution are now being used to produce one of these tools for Atlantic sea scallop fisheries. The dashboard will allow managers to test the impacts of different management actions on scallop populations.  In the Pacific Northwest, NOAA, the University of Washington, and shellfish industry scientists have formed a strong partnership to adapt to ocean acidification impacts that have already affected the shellfish industry. Together these researchers determined that acidification was threatening oyster production and offered an approach to address it. They installed equipment to monitor carbon chemistry at shellfish hatcheries and worked with hatchery managers to develop methods that protect developing oyster larvae from exposure to low pH waters.   Early warning tools are now being used to forecast seasonal acidification conditions to enable shellfish growers to adapt their practices.

 

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CONNECTING PEOPLE ACROSS REGIONS AND DISCIPLINES

Ocean acidification is a global challenge, and the most effective adaptation strategies are holistic, incorporating the knowledge and experiences of many sectors. As an answer to the difficulty of bridging geographic and professional divides, together with the Interagency Working Group on Ocean Acidification, NOAA helped launch the Ocean Acidification Information Exchange, an online community and discussion forum.

The OA Information Exchange is designed to make it easy  to connect and find information, with tools to post updates, share documents, media, links, and events with fellow members. The site welcomes scientists, educators, students, policy makers, members of industry, and concerned citizens to help fulfill the mission of building a well-informed community ready to respond and adapt to ocean and coastal acidification. If you would like to join the conversation, please request an account at oainfoexchange.org/request-account.html


EXPLORE THE IOOS Pacific Region Ocean Acidification
Data portal

This portal provides a real-time data stream of ocean acidification data that can be used by shellfish growers, regional managers, stakeholders and the public. The portal can be used to make resource decisions and build adaptation strategies.


OAP SUPPORTED Societal impact PROJECTS

Effects of ocean acidification and temperature on Alaskan crabs

Effects of ocean acidification and temperature on Alaskan crabs

Chris Long - NOAA/NMFS Alaska Fisheries Science Center

Effects of predicted changes in ocean pCO2 and interactions with other stressors on the physiology and behavior of commercially important crabs in Alaska

Why we care 
Ocean acidification disrupts the internal acid-base balance of crabs and may hinder the creation and maintenance of shells. Previous studies on commercially important crab species in Alaska found that ocean acidification changes physiology, decreases growth and condition, increases mortality, decreases hatching success, and changes exoskeleton (shell) hardness and structure in many Alaska crab species. Ocean temperature is a co-stressor, which may either decrease or increase the effects of ocean acidification on crabs. These individual effects may lead to population level decreases and impact coastal communities that rely on them if these crabs are unable to acclimate or adapt.

What we are doing
The Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC) aims to enhance our understanding of species responses to ocean acidification, predict how changes in ocean chemistry will affect marine ecosystems and organisms, assess socioeconomic impacts, and provide ocean acidification education and outreach. This project continues to assess the physiological response to ocean acidification of early life history stages in crabs. Researchers will examine the potential for acclimation of crab species through experimentation. Experimental data will be used to inform modeling efforts to assess the dynamics of the crab populations and coastal community resilience to future environmental changes in the ocean.

Benefits of our work
The AFSC team will continue to address individual physiological responses that can be scaled to population level effects. Additionally, we will focus on cellular and molecular responses to better understand the potential for acclimation or adaptation. Results from this project will inform models, including stock assessments for long-term fisheries management through the North Pacific Fisheries Management Council.


Wednesday, August 31, 2022
Modeling the impact of OA on Alaskan fisheries for decision makers

Modeling the impact of OA on Alaskan fisheries for decision makers

Michael Dalton - Alaska Fisheries Science Center

Forecast effects of ocean acidification on Alaska crab and groundfish fisheries

Why we care
Ocean acidification (OA) is a multi-disciplinary problem that requires a combination of methods from oceanography, fisheries science, and social science to assess socio-economic impacts. While OA impact models developed to date capture some sources of measurement uncertainty, more remains and limits the utility of models in decision making and research planning. A method is needed to quantify uncertainty relating the experimental design of OA experiments to the impacts of ocean pH and temperature on key model outcomes.

What we are doing
The bioeconomic model developed under this project will be applied to forecasting long-term effects of OA on Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) crab, northern rock sole and Alaska cod. Also addressed in this project is the quantification of uncertainty for inclusion in the fisheries management process. The overall goal for this project is to forecast long-term effects of OA on abundance yields and fishery income. To this end, we will apply results from experiments and ocean monitoring/modeling to infer population-scale changes in juvenile growth and survival from OA.

Benefits of our work
Through development of bioeconomic models for the EBS and Gulf of Alaska, we will be able to forecast the long-term effects of OA on northern rock sole and Alaska cod – a fish providing the vast majority of U.S. cod. These models make it possible to estimate abundance yields, fishery income, and economic impacts of OA on a national scale. The results from the project can assist with the development of experiments that will be most informative for bioeconomic modeling.


Wednesday, August 31, 2022

Assessing Ocean Acidification in Alaska Fishery Zones

Jessica Cross - Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Sustained Observations of Ocean Acidification in Alaska Coastal Seas

Why we care
Coastal regions around Alaska experience some of the most rapid and extensive progressions of ocean acidification (OA) in the United States. Assessments indicate that Alaska coastal communities have a varying degree of vulnerability to OA ranging from moderate to severe. Economically vital fishing regions are the most vulnerable. Sustained monitoring is critical to track the extent and impact of ocean acidification in habitats that are home to sensitive species such as red king crab in the Bering Sea.

What we are doing
This project “rethinks” the coastal Alaskan OA monitoring effort (initiated in 2015) by sampling Alaska waters directly through the annual population survey program of the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC). This new vision doubles the spatial footprint of Alaska OA observations, increases the time resolution of these observations, and complements shipboard surveys in Alaska. Carbonate chemistry samples will be combined with fisheries population surveys to assess OA in the habitats of keystone organisms in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. 

Benefits of our work
This project enhances our understanding of how the accumulation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide affects the seasonal progression of carbonate carbonate chemistry variables in the Gulf of Alaska. The observations can also be used to validate new OA models developed for the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. Additionally, it can be applied to bioeconomic forecast models of crab and walleye pollock providing insight on how to adapt and build resilience to impacted industries and communities.


Wednesday, August 31, 2022
Evaluating impacts of acidification on biological processes in the Gulf of Mexico

Evaluating impacts of acidification on biological processes in the Gulf of Mexico

Leticia Barbero - NOAA CIMAS, University of Miami

Evaluation of OA impacts to plankton and fish distributions in the Gulf of Mexico during GOMECC-4 with a focus on HAB-interactions

Why we care
Ocean change in the Gulf of Mexico, including acidification and eutrophication, can impact biodiversity and the flow of energy through ecosystems from microscopic phytoplankton to higher trophic levels like fish. These processes can impact the health of fisheries and coastal ecosystems. This project collects information to evaluate the links between ocean conditions and important species in the Gulf of Mexico. 

What we are doing
During the 4th Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem and Carbon Cruise (GOMECC-4), scientists collect samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and ichthyoplankton to characterize fish distribution and abundance, larval fish condition and diet, microplastic abundance, and harmful algal bloom species. These collections coincide with measurements of acidification, oxygen, and eutrophication to make connections between ocean chemistry and biology.

Benefits of our work
This project will help characterize how changes in ocean conditions interact with biological processes like harmful algal bloom formation and ecosystem productivity that are important to local fisheries and stakeholders.


Wednesday, August 31, 2022
Sustained ocean acidification monitoring on ships of opportunity in the Pacific

Sustained ocean acidification monitoring on ships of opportunity in the Pacific

Simone Alin - Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

PMEL Sustained Investment Coastal Underway Ocean Acidification Observations (PUO)

Why we care
Underway ship measurements of ocean acidification (OA) data on ships of opportunity (SOOP) have proven to be a robust and cost-effective way of expanding OA observations. Ship-based observations provide an understanding of the spatial extent of processes that drive OA. Surface underway observations, in conjunction with coastal moorings and dedicated large-scale surveys, make an important contribution to addressing the hypothesis that acidification varies across space and time as a consequence of local and regional processes.


What we are doing 
The focus of this project is to sustain existing underway OA monitoring systems on NOAA Ships Oscar Dyson and Bell M. Shimada, which operate along the U.S. West Coast. Project objectives also include sustaining underway OA observations in the equatorial Pacific, upgrading sensor systems, and improving oxygen data collection. 

Benefits of our work
This project increases high-quality surface water OA data taken underway to accompany NOAA Fisheries cruises. Efforts also improve spatial and temporal coverage of OA measurements, improving our understanding of OA variability along the Pacific coast of North America.


Wednesday, August 31, 2022
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