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A multi-model approach to understanding the role of Pacific sardine in the California Current food web

Citation: Kaplan IC, Francis TB, Punt AE, Koehn LE and others (2019) A multi-model approach to understanding the role of Pacific sardine in the California Current food web. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 617-618:307-321. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12504

We develop a multi-model approach to explore how abundance of a forage fish (Pacific sardine Sardinops sagax) impacts the ecosystem and predators in the California Current, a region where sardine and anchovy Engraulis mordax have recently declined to less than 10% of contemporary peak abundances. We developed or improved applications of 3 ecosystem modeling approaches: Ecopath, Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem assessment (MICE), and Atlantis. We also used Ecopath diets to predict impacts to predators using a statistical generalization of the dynamic Ecosim model (Predator Response to the Exploitation of Prey [PREP]). Models that included brown pelican Pelecanus occidentalis at the species level (MICE and Ecopath/PREP) both predict moderate to high vulnerability of brown pelicans to low sardine abundance. This vulnerability arises because sardine comprises a large fraction of their diet, and because other important prey (anchovy) also exhibit large population fluctuations. Two of the ecosystem models (MICE and Atlantis) suggest that California sea lions Zalophus californianus exhibit relatively minor responses to sardine depletion, due to having broader diets and lower reliance on another fluctuating species, anchovy. On the other hand, Ecopath/PREP suggests that sardine declines will have a stronger impact on California sea lions. This discrepancy may in part reflect structural differences in the models: Atlantis and MICE explicitly represent density dependence and age-structure, which can mitigate effects of prey depletion in these models. Future work should identify fisheries management strategies that are robust to uncertainties within and among models, rather than relying on single models to assess ecosystem impacts of management and forage fish abundance.

ADAPTING TO OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) works to prepare society to adapt to the consequences of ocean acidification and conserve marine ecosystems as acidification occurs. Learn more about the human connections and adaptation strategies from these efforts.

Adaptation approaches fostered by the OAP include:

FORECASTING

Using models and research to understand the sensitivity of organisms and ecosystems to ocean acidification to make predictions about the future, allowing communities and industries to prepare

MANAGEMENT

Using these models and predictions as tools to facilitate management strategies that will protect marine resources and communities from future changes

TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

Developing innovative tools to help monitor ocean acidification and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally

REDUCING OUR CARBON FOOTPRINT

On the Road

Drive fuel-efficient vehicles or choose public transportation. Choose your bike or walk! Don't sit idle for more than 30 seconds. Keep your tires properly inflated.

With your Food Choices

Eat local- this helps cut down on production and transport! Reduce your meat and dairy. Compost to avoid food waste ending up in the landfill

With your Food Choices

Make energy-efficient choices for your appliances and lighting. Heat and cool efficiently! Change your air filters and program your thermostat, seal and insulate your home, and support clean energy sources

By Reducing Coastal Acidification

Reduce your use of fertilizers, Improve sewage treatment and run off, and Protect and restore coastal habitats

TAKE ACTION WITH YOUR COMMUNITY

You've taken the first step to learn more about ocean acidification - why not spread this knowledge to your community?

Every community has their unique culture, economy and ecology and what’s at stake from ocean acidification may be different depending on where you live.  As a community member, you can take a larger role in educating the public about ocean acidification. Creating awareness is the first step to taking action.  As communities gain traction, neighboring regions that share marine resources can build larger coalitions to address ocean acidification.  Here are some ideas to get started:

  1. Work with informal educators, such as aquarium outreach programs and local non-profits, to teach the public about ocean acidification. Visit our Education & Outreach page to find the newest tools!
  2. Participate in habitat restoration efforts to restore habitats that help mitigate the effects of coastal acidification
  3. Facilitate conversations with local businesses that might be affected by ocean acidification, building a plan for the future.
  4. Partner with local community efforts to mitigate the driver behind ocean acidification  – excess CO2 – such as community supported agriculture, bike & car shares and other public transportation options.
  5. Contact your regional Coastal Acidification Network (CAN) to learn how OA is affecting your region and more ideas about how you can get involved in your community
       More for Taking Community Action