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Evaluating the impact of ocean acidification on fishery yields and profits: The example of red king crab in Bristol Bay

  • Author(s): André E. Punt, Dusanka Poljak, Michael G. Dalton, Robert J. Foy,
  • Ecological Modelling
  • May 13, 2014
Citation: Punt, A. E., Poljak, D., Dalton, M. G., & Foy, R. J. (2014). Evaluating the impact of ocean acidification on fishery yields and profits: The example of red king crab in Bristol Bay. Ecological Modelling, 285, 39-53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.04.017

A stage-structured pre-recruit model was developed to capture hypotheses regarding the impact of ocean acidification on the survival of pre-recruit crab. The model was parameterized using life history and survival data for red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) derived from experiments conducted at the National Marine Fisheries Service Kodiak laboratory. A parameterized pre-recruit model was linked to a post-recruit population dynamics model for adult male red king crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska that included commercial fishery harvest. This coupled population dynamics model was integrated with a bioeconomic model of commercial fishing sector profits to forecast how the impacts of ocean acidification on the survival of pre-recruit red king crab will affect yields and profits for the Bristol Bay red king crab fishery for a scenario that includes future ocean pH levels predictions. Expected yields and profits were projected to decline over the next 50–100 years in this scenario given reductions in pre-recruit survival due to decreasing ocean pH levels over time. The target fishing mortality used to provide management advice based on the current harvest policy for Bristol Bay red king crab also declined over time in response to declining survival rates. However, the impacts of ocean acidification due to reduced pre-recruit survival on yield and profits are likely to be limited for the next 10–20 years, and its effects will likely be masked by natural variation in pre-recruit survival. This analysis is an initial step toward a fully integrated understanding of the impact of ocean acidification on fishery yields and profits, and could be used to focus future research efforts.

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    Effects of ocean acidification and temperature on Alaskan crabs

    Red King Crab
    Image credit: David Csepp, NMFS AKFSC ABL

    Long-term declines of red king crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska may be partially attributed to ocean acidification conditions. These impacts may be partially responsible for the fishery closures during the 2021–2022 and 2022–2023 seasons. Researchers found that ocean acidification negatively impacts Alaskan crabs generally by changing physiological processes, decreasing growth, increasing death rates and reducing shell thickness. Funded by the Ocean Acidification Program, scientists at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center continue to investigate the responses of early life history stages and study the potential of various Alaska crabs to acclimate to changing conditions. Results will inform models that will use the parameters studied to predict the effects of future ocean acidification on the populations of red king crab in Bristol Bay as well as on the fisheries that depend on them. Fishery managers will better be able to anticipate and manage stocks if changing ocean chemistry affects stock productivity and thus the maximum sustainable yield.

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    Forecasts for Alaska Fisheries

    Fishing nets in Alaska
    Image credit: Michael Theberge

    Understanding seasonal changes in ocean acidification in Alaskan waters and the potential impacts to the multi-billion-dollar fishery sector is a main priority. Through work funded by NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Program, the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory developed a model capable of depicting past ocean chemistry conditions for the Bering Sea and is now testing the ability of this model to forecast future conditions. This model is being used to develop an ocean acidification indicator provided to fisheries managers in the annual NOAA Eastern Bering Sea Ecosystem Status Report.

    ADAPTING TO OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

    The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) works to prepare society to adapt to the consequences of ocean acidification and conserve marine ecosystems as acidification occurs. Learn more about the human connections and adaptation strategies from these efforts.

    Adaptation approaches fostered by the OAP include:

    FORECASTING

    Using models and research to understand the sensitivity of organisms and ecosystems to ocean acidification to make predictions about the future, allowing communities and industries to prepare

    Closeup of oysters cupped in someone's hands

    MANAGEMENT

    Using these models and predictions as tools to facilitate management strategies that will protect marine resources and communities from future changes

    TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

    Developing innovative tools to help monitor ocean acidification and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally

    REDUCING OUR CARBON FOOTPRINT

    50 more ways to reduce your carbon footprint >

    On the Road

    Drive fuel-efficient vehicles or choose public transportation. Choose your bike or walk! Don't sit idle for more than 30 seconds. Keep your tires properly inflated.

    With your Food Choices

    Eat local- this helps cut down on production and transport! Reduce your meat and dairy. Compost to avoid food waste ending up in the landfill

    With your Food Choices

    Make energy-efficient choices for your appliances and lighting. Heat and cool efficiently! Change your air filters and program your thermostat, seal and insulate your home, and support clean energy sources

    By Reducing Coastal Acidification

    Reduce your use of fertilizers, Improve sewage treatment and run off, and Protect and restore coastal habitats

    TAKE ACTION WITH YOUR COMMUNITY

    You've taken the first step to learn more about ocean acidification - why not spread this knowledge to your community?

    Every community has their unique culture, economy and ecology and what’s at stake from ocean acidification may be different depending on where you live.  As a community member, you can take a larger role in educating the public about ocean acidification. Creating awareness is the first step to taking action.  As communities gain traction, neighboring regions that share marine resources can build larger coalitions to address ocean acidification.  Here are some ideas to get started:

    1. Work with informal educators, such as aquarium outreach programs and local non-profits, to teach the public about ocean acidification. Visit our Education & Outreach page to find the newest tools!
    2. Participate in habitat restoration efforts to restore habitats that help mitigate the effects of coastal acidification
    3. Facilitate conversations with local businesses that might be affected by ocean acidification, building a plan for the future.
    4. Partner with local community efforts to mitigate the driver behind ocean acidification  – excess CO2 – such as community supported agriculture, bike & car shares and other public transportation options.
    5. Contact your regional Coastal Acidification Network (CAN) to learn how OA is affecting your region and more ideas about how you can get involved in your community
           More for Taking Community Action