NOAA PMEL Sustained Seasonal Forecasts of Ocean Acidification in the Bering Sea
Why we care
Alaskan ocean waters are highly vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) due to the naturally cold, poorly buffered waters and ocean circulation patterns. This vulnerability means that a relatively small amount of anthropogenic CO2 can cause corrosivity in Alaskan waters on seasonal timeframes. Many of the subsistence and commercial fisheries in the Bering Sea are at risk due to direct and indirect effects of OA. Considering that the Bering Sea is home to 60% of U.S. fish catch by weight and supports nearly $3 billion in catch value annually, it is critically important to understand how OA may impact the entire Alaskan fishery sector.
What we will do
This project aims to expand model hindcast reforecasts (2017-2019) and continue model forecasts (2021-2023) for OA in the Bering Sea. The expanded hindcast will provide critical historical context for OA in the Bering Sea which is presently lacking. The added reforecasts will assess the viability of utilizing emerging observational datasets for validating future forecasts. This project will also lead to the development of an OA index for inclusion in the Ecosystem Status Report (ESR) and use ship-based survey data to provide a test of model forecast skill. This project will maintain stakeholder engagement to ensure that developed forecast products are informed by the needs identified for fisheries management and the broader Alaskan community.
Benefits of our work
Project outcomes will benefit an established group of stakeholders representing Alaskan subsistence and commercial fisheries sector and coastal communities. Collaboration between the project research team and stakeholder groups will play a pivotal role in developing new applications for this model output that can help address fisheries management needs. Results will be disseminated to fisheries managers and private stakeholders through the ESR and to Alaskan communities located near highly vulnerable regions.
Investigators
Darin Pilcher, University of Washington CICOES
Jessica Cross, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)