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Optimizing Global Observations of Carbon Dioxide in the Surface Ocean Using Machine Learning

Map of SOCAT (v1.5) surface fCO2 values released on September 14, 2011. Credit: NOAA PMEL
  • Principal Investigator(s): Galen A. McKinley, Columbia University
  • Fiscal Year Funded: 2025, 2026, 2027

Award Amount: $573,955
Duration: 3 years

Project title: Valuation of Surface Ocean pCO2 Observations For Machine Learning Applications

Why we care
The ocean absorbs about 25% of annual anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. To monitor this key climate service, we must understand air-sea carbon dioxide exchanges across the globe. Machine learning allows us to interpolate surface ocean carbon dioxide (called pCO2) by estimating relationships with more commonly measured ocean variables like temperature and salinity. This project uses machine learning to determine how to best deploy observing assets like buoys, autonomous vehicles, and ships to measure the ocean’s uptake of carbon dioxide globally.

What we will do
The Surface Ocean CO2 ATlas (SOCAT) is the largest global database of pCO2 measurements, but only covers 1.6% of the global ocean and is biased towards the northern hemisphere. Machine learning (ML) is now widely used to interpolate these data to derive monthly estimates of spatially-resolved air-sea CO2 fluxes, and from these, estimates of the integrated ocean carbon sink. This project will use machine learning approaches to quantify the value of each individual pCO2 observation in SOCAT, evaluate interpolation algorithms, and use a model testbed to suggest improvements to the distribution of existing observations. 

Benefits of our work
Limited resources means there are limited numbers of ships, buoys, and autonomous vehicles that can be deployed. In addition, global shipping routes do not cover inaccessible regions and unsafe waters. This work will assess how we can optimize observing resources from the global fleet to support improved, efficient, and cost-effective monitoring of the ocean carbon sink and minimize uncertainty.  

Investigators 
Galen A. McKinley, Columbia University
Amanda R. Fay, Columbia University
Thea Hatlen Heimdal, Columbia University
Tian Zheng, Columbia University
Viviana Acquaviva, Columbia University and CUNY-Brooklyn Tech

Resources
Access the carbon cycle data.
Read the carbon cycle explainer.
Get the carbon cycle story with animations.

Bipartisan Infrastructure Law
The funds for this project are provided by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law through President Biden’s Investing in America agenda. This project will allow NOAA to better monitor surface ocean CO2 and ultimately improve understanding and forecasting of global climatic and environmental change. For more information on this investment by the Biden-Harris administration, please see the associated press release here.

Image: Map of SOCAT (v1.5) surface fCO2 values released on September 14, 2011. The map shows lines from ships of opportunity equipped with sensors that measure ocean carbon. Credit: NOAA PMEL

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ADAPTING TO OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) works to prepare society to adapt to the consequences of ocean acidification and conserve marine ecosystems as acidification occurs. Learn more about the human connections and adaptation strategies from these efforts.

Adaptation approaches fostered by the OAP include:

FORECASTING

Using models and research to understand the sensitivity of organisms and ecosystems to ocean acidification to make predictions about the future, allowing communities and industries to prepare

MANAGEMENT

Using these models and predictions as tools to facilitate management strategies that will protect marine resources and communities from future changes

TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

Developing innovative tools to help monitor ocean acidification and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally

REDUCING OUR CARBON FOOTPRINT

50 more ways to reduce your carbon footprint >

On the Road

Drive fuel-efficient vehicles or choose public transportation. Choose your bike or walk! Don't sit idle for more than 30 seconds. Keep your tires properly inflated.

With your Food Choices

Eat local- this helps cut down on production and transport! Reduce your meat and dairy. Compost to avoid food waste ending up in the landfill

With your Food Choices

Make energy-efficient choices for your appliances and lighting. Heat and cool efficiently! Change your air filters and program your thermostat, seal and insulate your home, and support clean energy sources

By Reducing Coastal Acidification

Reduce your use of fertilizers, Improve sewage treatment and run off, and Protect and restore coastal habitats

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TAKE ACTION WITH YOUR COMMUNITY

You've taken the first step to learn more about ocean acidification - why not spread this knowledge to your community?

Every community has their unique culture, economy and ecology and what’s at stake from ocean acidification may be different depending on where you live.  As a community member, you can take a larger role in educating the public about ocean acidification. Creating awareness is the first step to taking action.  As communities gain traction, neighboring regions that share marine resources can build larger coalitions to address ocean acidification.  Here are some ideas to get started:

  1. Work with informal educators, such as aquarium outreach programs and local non-profits, to teach the public about ocean acidification. Visit our Education & Outreach page to find the newest tools!
  2. Participate in habitat restoration efforts to restore habitats that help mitigate the effects of coastal acidification
  3. Facilitate conversations with local businesses that might be affected by ocean acidification, building a plan for the future.
  4. Partner with local community efforts to mitigate the driver behind ocean acidification  – excess CO2 – such as community supported agriculture, bike & car shares and other public transportation options.
  5. Contact your regional Coastal Acidification Network (CAN) to learn how OA is affecting your region and more ideas about how you can get involved in your community
       More for Taking Community Action