Identifying thresholds in coupled biogeochemical-biological-
economic systems under multiple stressors
Jeremy Testa, University of Maryland
The wild oyster industry has suffered repeated collapses in the Chesapeake Bay due to overharvesting, disease, and declining environmental conditions. How future conditions will affect the Eastern oyster remain uncertain, not only because these conditions such as increased freshwater are difficult to predict , but also because the interactions between stressors such as ocean acidification, temperature, nutrient runoff and sea level rise could lead to unexpected chemical, biological, and economic change. The changes in stressors and their impacts do not always proceed in a straight line. The potential responses of various life stages of the Eastern oyster to stressors like acidification and eutrophication has received little attention. This project will study the impact of different stressors to Chesapeake Bay, a large estuarine system, and the Eastern oyster. The study will bring together different models to understand the relationship between biogeochemical cycling of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients, oyster growth and survival, and oyster economic profitability in the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The project will provide insights into future conditions and habitats where aquaculture and wild oyster populations may be most vulnerable to the climate and ocean changes.