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Modeling the impact of OA on Alaskan fisheries for decision makers

  • Principal Investigator(s): Michael Dalton
  • Fiscal Year Funded: 2021

Michael Dalton – Alaska Fisheries Science Center

Forecast effects of ocean acidification on Alaska crab and groundfish fisheries
Why we care
Ocean acidification (OA) is a multi-disciplinary problem that requires a combination of methods from oceanography, fisheries science, and social science to assess socio-economic impacts. While OA impact models developed to date capture some sources of measurement uncertainty, more remains and limits the utility of models in decision making and research planning. A method is needed to quantify uncertainty relating the experimental design of OA experiments to the impacts of ocean pH and temperature on key model outcomes.
What we are doing
The bioeconomic model developed under this project will be applied to forecasting long-term effects of OA on Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) crab, northern rock sole and Alaska cod. Also addressed in this project is the quantification of uncertainty for inclusion in the fisheries management process. The overall goal for this project is to forecast long-term effects of OA on abundance yields and fishery income. To this end, we will apply results from experiments and ocean monitoring/modeling to infer population-scale changes in juvenile growth and survival from OA.
Benefits of our work
Through development of bioeconomic models for the EBS and Gulf of Alaska, we will be able to forecast the long-term effects of OA on northern rock sole and Alaska cod – a fish providing the vast majority of U.S. cod. These models make it possible to estimate abundance yields, fishery income, and economic impacts of OA on a national scale. The results from the project can assist with the development of experiments that will be most informative for bioeconomic modeling.

Effects of ocean acidification and temperature on Alaskan crabs

Red King Crab
Image credit: David Csepp, NMFS AKFSC ABL

Long-term declines of red king crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska may be partially attributed to ocean acidification conditions. These impacts may be partially responsible for the fishery closures during the 2021–2022 and 2022–2023 seasons. Researchers found that ocean acidification negatively impacts Alaskan crabs generally by changing physiological processes, decreasing growth, increasing death rates and reducing shell thickness. Funded by the Ocean Acidification Program, scientists at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center continue to investigate the responses of early life history stages and study the potential of various Alaska crabs to acclimate to changing conditions. Results will inform models that will use the parameters studied to predict the effects of future ocean acidification on the populations of red king crab in Bristol Bay as well as on the fisheries that depend on them. Fishery managers will better be able to anticipate and manage stocks if changing ocean chemistry affects stock productivity and thus the maximum sustainable yield.

More about this work

Forecasts for Alaska Fisheries

Crab pots and fishing nets in Alaska's Dutch Harbor
Image credit: Michael Theberge

Understanding seasonal changes in ocean acidification in Alaskan waters and the potential impacts to the multi-billion-dollar fishery sector is a main priority. Through work funded by NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Program, the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory developed a model capable of depicting past ocean chemistry conditions for the Bering Sea and is now testing the ability of this model to forecast future conditions. This model is being used to develop an ocean acidification indicator provided to fisheries managers in the annual NOAA Eastern Bering Sea Ecosystem Status Report.

ADAPTING TO OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) works to prepare society to adapt to the consequences of ocean acidification and conserve marine ecosystems as acidification occurs. Learn more about the human connections and adaptation strategies from these efforts.

Adaptation approaches fostered by the OAP include:

FORECASTING

Using models and research to understand the sensitivity of organisms and ecosystems to ocean acidification to make predictions about the future, allowing communities and industries to prepare

Closeup of oysters cupped in someone's hands

MANAGEMENT

Using these models and predictions as tools to facilitate management strategies that will protect marine resources and communities from future changes

TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

Developing innovative tools to help monitor ocean acidification and mitigate changing ocean chemistry locally

REDUCING OUR CARBON FOOTPRINT

50 more ways to reduce your carbon footprint >

On the Road

Drive fuel-efficient vehicles or choose public transportation. Choose your bike or walk! Don't sit idle for more than 30 seconds. Keep your tires properly inflated.

With your Food Choices

Eat local- this helps cut down on production and transport! Reduce your meat and dairy. Compost to avoid food waste ending up in the landfill

With your Food Choices

Make energy-efficient choices for your appliances and lighting. Heat and cool efficiently! Change your air filters and program your thermostat, seal and insulate your home, and support clean energy sources

By Reducing Coastal Acidification

Reduce your use of fertilizers, Improve sewage treatment and run off, and Protect and restore coastal habitats

TAKE ACTION WITH YOUR COMMUNITY

You've taken the first step to learn more about ocean acidification - why not spread this knowledge to your community?

Every community has their unique culture, economy and ecology and what’s at stake from ocean acidification may be different depending on where you live.  As a community member, you can take a larger role in educating the public about ocean acidification. Creating awareness is the first step to taking action.  As communities gain traction, neighboring regions that share marine resources can build larger coalitions to address ocean acidification.  Here are some ideas to get started:

  1. Work with informal educators, such as aquarium outreach programs and local non-profits, to teach the public about ocean acidification. Visit our Education & Outreach page to find the newest tools!
  2. Participate in habitat restoration efforts to restore habitats that help mitigate the effects of coastal acidification
  3. Facilitate conversations with local businesses that might be affected by ocean acidification, building a plan for the future.
  4. Partner with local community efforts to mitigate the driver behind ocean acidification  – excess CO2 – such as community supported agriculture, bike & car shares and other public transportation options.
  5. Contact your regional Coastal Acidification Network (CAN) to learn how OA is affecting your region and more ideas about how you can get involved in your community
       More for Taking Community Action